全球投资新宠还看新兴市场

    当今世界经济发展可谓悲喜两重天。美国及其他发达国家仍然在高失业率、产能闲置、楼市低迷和增长乏力的泥潭中苦苦挣扎。虽然利率已处于历史低点，很多发达国家的信贷依然紧张。欧洲国家负债累累，使得任何投资其银行系统的人都面临高风险。

    与之形成对比的是，国际货币基金组织（IMF）近期的一份报告显示，全球金融危机并未对中国、印度、巴西和其他新兴经济体“产生持续性伤害”。大部分新兴市场的状况都好于发达市场在危机爆发前的情形——新兴市场的公共债务较低，国内储蓄率较高，出口更强劲。在很多新兴市场的首都，决策者们更多担心的是经济过热的可能性，而不是经济停滞。数字可以说明问题：IMF预计世界经济今年和明年将每年增长4.5%，但发达经济体的年增长率可能只有2.5%，而发展中经济体为6.5%。

    这些对投资者意味着什么？麦肯锡全球研究院（McKinsey Global Institute）的一项最新研究认为，新兴经济体将是未来十年的投资热土。新兴世界的金融资产积累速度早已远远快于纽约、伦敦和东京等传统银行中心。全球股票、债券和贷款总额去年增加了11万亿美元至212万亿美元（见下图）。但成熟经济体部分仅增长了3.9%，发展中世界增长了13.5%，当然，后者的基数肯定低得多。目前发达世界仍掌握着全球大约79%的金融资产，预计到2020年新兴经济体部分将增长近一倍，从现在的21%升至36%。

    Today, essentially two global economies exist side by side. The U.S. and its advanced peers continue to struggle with high unemployment, idle capacity, depressed housing markets, and anemic growth. Credit remains tight in much of the developed world, despite historically low interest rates. Debt-laden European nations pose heightened risk for anyone exposed to their banking system.

    By contrast, the global financial crisis has "left no lasting wounds" on China, India, Brazil, and other emerging economies, according to a recent IMF report. Emerging markets were for the most part in better shape than their advanced counterparts before the crisis, with less public debt, higher domestic savings rates, and stronger exports. In many developing-world capitals, policymakers worry more about their economies overheating than stalling out. Numbers tell the story: The IMF expects the world economy to grow at an annual rate of 4.5% this year and next. But advanced economies are likely to see annual growth of only 2.5%, vs. 6.5% for the developing world.

    What does all this mean for investors? A new study by the McKinsey Global Institute suggests that emerging economies will be the place to invest over the next decade. Already the developing world is amassing financial assets at a much faster rate than are traditional banking centers like New York, London, and Tokyo. The total amount of global stocks, bonds, and loans increased by $11 trillion last year to $212 trillion (see chart below). However, the share in mature economies rose by only 3.9%, compared with 13.5% in the developing world, which of course grew from a far smaller base. While it is true that the rich world still commands some 79% of the world's financial assets, the emerging economies' share is expected to nearly double, from 21% today to as much as 36% by 2020.

    挑战之一：新兴市场本地投资者倾向于将钱存入银行账户及购买固定收益证券，而不投资股票市场。企业能获得足够的股票融资来维持强劲的增长吗？相信新兴市场投资者会逐渐热衷于股票，前提当然是亚洲和拉美的一些证交所能实施更严格的上市要求来提高投资者信心。这种变化或许已经开始出现了。麦肯锡的报告称，中国已成为全球最大的IPO市场，去年发行募资1,250亿美元。（相比之下，美国仅发行募资350亿美元。）嘉能可（Glencore）、普拉达（Prada）等西方公司最近在香港交易所挂牌。可口可乐（Coca-Cola）也在探索在上海上市的可能。若要了解全球资金正在流向哪里，请继续往下看。

    One challenge: Local investors in emerging markets tend to put most of their money in bank accounts and fixed-income securities rather than in the stock market. Will companies be able to raise enough equity to keep growth humming? The bet is that emerging-markets investors eventually will warm to equities, assuming of course that Asian and Latin American exchanges can boost investor confidence by adopting stricter listing requirements. It already may be starting to happen. McKinsey reports that China is the new world leader in IPOs, with $125 billion raised last year. (The U.S., by contrast, raised only $35 billion.) Western companies like Glencore and Prada have recently listed shares on the Hong Kong exchange. And Coca-Cola (KO) is currently exploring a listing in Shanghai. For a picture of where the world of money is headed, read on.