全球投资新宠还看新兴市场

新兴市场有多波动？

    任何一位有幸逃过97年亚洲金融危机那一劫的投资者可能都不愿再投资发展中国家，这也情有可原。当年纽约和伦敦的投资经理们敲敲键盘的弹指间，就将热钱撤出了负债累累的东南亚，造成公司倒闭，投资者倾家荡产。购买巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国等市场的股票和债券对于个人投资者仍有风险，特别是因为当前世界经济仍处于动荡时期。但麦肯锡的一项新研究从宏观经济角度提出了一个可能有争议的观点——当前新兴市场的资本流入要比发达市场稳定（见下图）。为什么？海外直接投资（FDI）在新兴市场的资本流入中占比较高。购买工厂、矿山等耐用资产的全球投资者在新兴市场资本流入中的占比要高于跨国借贷、股票和债券购买。相比之下，麦肯锡的数据显示，发达国家的国际资本流入更多是波动性比FDI高4倍的跨国借贷。还记得上次金融危机时发生的情形吗？对于个人投资者而言，FDI增加是一个风向标，说明全球投资者对当地经济具有信心。下面是资金流入的重点区域：

How volatile are emerging markets?

    Any investor lucky enough to have survived the Asian financial crisis of '97 can't be blamed for a reluctance to invest in the developing world. In the flick of a key, money managers in New York and London pulled hot money out of heavily indebted Southeast Asia, bankrupting companies and ruining investors. Buying stocks and bonds in markets such as Brazil, Russia, India, and China remains risky for individual investors, especially in times of world economic turmoil. Yet from a macroeconomic point of view, a new McKinsey study controversially argues that capital flows into emerging markets now are less volatile than flows into advanced economies (see chart below). Why? Emerging markets attract a higher percentage of foreign direct investment (FDI). Global investors buying stakes in durable assets like factories and mines now account for a larger proportion of capital flows into emerging markets than cross-border lending and stock and bond purchases. In the developed world, by contrast, international capital flows are weighted toward cross-border bank lending, which is up to four times more volatile than FDI, according to McKinsey. Just recall what happened during the last financial crisis. For the individual investor, growth in FDI represents a vote of confidence in a local economy. Here's where big bets are being placed: