全球投资新宠还看新兴市场

全球范围内锁定高收益

    未来几年，债券投资者可能会发现最好的回报来自新兴债券市场——虽然并不是没有风险。为什么？因为它们能够提供大量的投资机会，从新创公司和成熟企业的高速成长中获利。麦肯锡全球研究院的数据显示，新兴市场的公司债和证券化资产总额占到GDP的7%，远低于欧洲和美国分别的34%和108%。新兴市场企业需要借入资金来建设机场、铁路和工厂。

    当然，风险是这些公司很多都是根据宽松的会计准则在经营（这是含蓄点的说法），而且业务所在国的政局也不是太稳定。在中国，专家们担心债务泡沫。多年来中国企业一直在大兴土木，借钱修建办公楼、住宅楼、钢铁厂和汽车制造厂。中国经济增速放缓可能会导致债务泡沫破灭。虽然这么说，但谨慎而有耐心的投资者如果想获得比投资美国、欧洲和日本公司债更高的固定收益回报，或许可以考虑投资新兴市场，受益于更具活力的新兴经济增长。

Searching the globe for high yields

    In coming years bond investors might well find the best returns in emerging debt markets -- albeit not without some risk. Why? Opportunities to tap into the growth of both new and established companies will abound. The total value of corporate bonds and securitized assets amounts to 7% of GDP in emerging markets, compared with 34% in Europe and 108% in the U.S., according to the McKinsey Global Institute. Corporations in the developing world will need to borrow to keep building airports, railroads, and factories.

    The risk, of course, is that many of these companies operate under liberal accounting rules -- to put it mildly -- and do business in nations that are politically unstable. In China experts fear a debt bubble. Companies there have been on a building spree, borrowing money to build office and residential towers, steel mills, and car factories. A slowdown in the Chinese economy could make this debt bubble burst. That said, cautious and patient investors looking for a higher fixed-income return than can currently be found by investing in corporate bonds in the U.S., Europe, and Japan might tap into the more vital growth of the world's emerging markets.