四大当家投资品种新年行情预测大碰撞

美国楼市：看跌

    不是所有预测都这样乐观。很多经济学家估计2012年的美国楼市相比前几年的低迷走势不会有太大改观。穆迪分析公司（Moody's Analytics）首席经济学家马克•赞迪预计，住房价格将继续下跌4%至5%。而德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）的分析师们预计，全美平均房价“可能继续下滑”，因为市场需要更多时间来消化过多的空屋库存，目前空屋库存量仍比历史水平多出约100万套。

    另外，还有所谓的“影子库存”，即仍处于止赎流程、尚未进入楼市的房屋。尚不确定这部分库存会给楼市带来怎样的影响，但很多人担心它会进一步压低房价，推迟楼市的复苏。

U.S. Housing: Bear

    Not every forecast is so rosy. Plenty of economists are betting that 2012's housing market won't be much different than the lackluster market of previous years. Moody's Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi says he expects home prices to fall another 4% to 5%. And analysts at Deutsche Bank forecast that national home prices on average will "likely drift still slower," as the market needs more time to run off the excess stock of vacant homes, which remains about one million units above historical trends.

    And then there's the so-called "shadow inventory," or the onslaught of homes that are still going through the foreclosure process and haven't made their way into the housing market. It's uncertain what the implications are for the housing market, but many worry it could further depress prices and prolong a recovery.