四大当家投资品种新年行情预测大碰撞

美国股票：看涨

    2011年的美国股市可谓跌宕起伏，但有人预计2012年股市将出现反弹，一定程度上归功于美国总统大选。

    摩根大通（JP Morgan）的股票策略师们预计，2012年底标准普尔500指数（S&P 500）将回到经济衰退期前的水平，目标点位1,430点。他们相信当前的欧债危机将在2012年下半年得到缓解。他们还指出，选举周期可能对美国股市起到积极的支撑作用。从历史数据看，如果现任总统的支持率较低，选举年的股市表现就会较好。

    当然，前提是欧洲的状况不会进一步恶化。

U.S. Stocks: Bull

    U.S. stocks may have seen wild swings in 2011, but some forecasters expect equities to rally in 2012 thanks partly to the Presidential elections.

    Equity strategists at JP Morgan see the S&P 500 ending 2012 at pre-recession levels, touching a price target of 1,430. They believe Europe's ongoing debt crisis will ease by the second half of 2012. They also note that the election cycle could positively support equities. Historically, stocks have performed well when an incumbent going into an election has had low approval ratings.

    Of course, that's assuming things in Europe won't take a turn for the worse.