四大当家投资品种新年行情预测大碰撞

美国股票：看跌

    由于预计一段时间内美国经济还不能摆脱停滞状态，高盛（Goldman Sachs）对美国股市的前景比较悲观。该公司首席美国股票策略师大卫•克斯汀预计，标准普尔500指数2012年底的目标点位是1,250点，比2011年底前一周的收盘点位仅高出0.4%。

    克斯汀近日在致客户的报告中写到:“高度的政治不确定性以及下行政策尾端风险让我们相信，股票投资者应关注基本面，建仓时要做最坏的打算，抱最大的希望。”

    由于欧洲决策层还远未解决地区债务危机，欧洲未来的走势尚有待观察。但如果欧元真的解体，克斯汀预计这可能将“抹掉股市25%的价值，将标准普尔500指数拉低至900点。”

U.S. Stocks: Bear

    With the U.S. economy expected to remain stagnant for a while, Goldman Sachs offers a bleak outlook. The firm's chief U.S. equity strategist, David Kostin, predicts that the S&P 500 in 2012 will end at a relatively flat 1250 -- and a mere 0.4% higher than the index's closing level about a week before the end of 2011.

    "The high degree of political uncertainty coupled with downside policy tail risk drives our view that equity investors should focus on the underlying fundamentals and position portfolios for the worse while hoping for the best," Kostin wrote in a recent note to clients.

    It remains to be seen what will transpire in Europe, given the fact that officials are far from resolving the region's ongoing debt crisis. But if the collapse of the euro were to happen, Kostin believes that could "wipe 25% in value from stocks, driving the S&P 500 to 900."