欧元区的死穴不是债务

    专家和政界都将欧元危机归咎于那些违反预算条例、恣意挥霍的国家，因为预算条例正是欧元这个单一货币的重要支柱。如果西班牙、意大利和希腊能压缩令人瞠目的预算赤字，遏制如山般债务的增长，专家们相信欧元区经济仍能恢复繁荣。因此，迄今提出的一些解决方案都是围绕“财政整合”进行，即实施新的法规，赋予欧盟（European Union）限制成员国支出和负债的广泛权力，同时出台严厉的处罚措施，确保欧元区成员国无人敢逾越雷池。

    这就是2011年12月份德国总理默克尔和法国总统萨科齐举行峰会期间所商谈草案的核心。本周一，这两位领导人又在柏林会晤，重申将制定针对欧元区17个成员国的“财政协议”，并在3月1日前签署严厉的新条例和处罚措施。

    然而，这个计划不会奏效。欧洲的主要问题并不是成员国的债务和赤字规模。事实上，目前欧元区的债务/GDP比率还不到90%，数字虽高，但明显低于美国的100%，更别提日本的227%。

    真正的问题在于经济增长：欧元区弱国如果继续接受欧元的桎梏，就难以实现增长。意大利或希腊就无法取得足够的税收收入来压缩预算赤字、减轻债务负担，也不能获得足够的出口额来创造新的就业机会。换言之，经济体制的国家无力承担美国这样的经济增长国家所能够应对的财政压力。

核心是竞争

    欧洲弱国为什么不能实现经济增长？原因很简单：它们的经济在国际市场上缺乏竞争力，因为它们被超高估的货币所拖累，而这些国家以及它们强大的北方邻国似乎执意要保留这个货币。要理解为什么欧元的弊病，最简单的办法就是问一问这些陷入困境的国家假如恢复本国货币，将会怎样？恢复本国货币后，货币汇率将由市场决定，而不是由外界强加。

    如果全球消费者和投资者用美元、日元对希腊或意大利的商品和作物进行投票，新的德拉克马或里拉的汇率可能会比当前的欧元低30%。结论：全球市场之所以不购买这些国家以欧元计价的商品，是因为这些深陷危机的国家汇率被高估了40%以上。

    带着这样的镣铐，希腊、葡萄牙或西班牙根本没有竞争力，也很难实现经济增长。“财政协议”也无法改变市场的取向。

    让欧元区弱国陷于不利境地的是一个有点学究气但非常重要的指标，即单位劳动力成本，比如生产一辆汽车、一台个人电脑或一台反铲挖土机的劳动力成本。（劳动力通常占到总费用的70%）。假设在西班牙需要3个工人花1个小时来生产一个小装置，在德国2个工人就够了，即德国经济的生产率要高得多。虽然如此，西班牙工人的工资仍然达到了德国工人的90%。因此，在西班牙生产的这个小装置其成本至少要比德国生产的高出25%。

    Pundits and politicians are blaming the euro's crisis on profligate nations that violated the budget rules designed as a pillar of the single currency. If Spain, Italy and Greece could shrink their yawning budget deficits and halt the rise in their mountainous debt, the experts argue, prosperity would return to the eurozone. Hence, the proposed solutions are all about "fiscal integration," imposing new regulations that would give the European Union broad authority to impose spending and borrowing limits in the member states -- with penalties so strict that no eurozone member could stray.

    That's the basis of the blueprint negotiated at a December summit between German Chancellor Merkel and French President Sarkozy. On Monday, the two leaders met in Berlin to renew their pledge to present a "fiscal compact" for the 17 eurozone countries, promising a new set of stiff rules and penalties by March 1.

    Their master plan won't work. Europe's principal problem isn't the size of its members' debt and deficits. In fact, the eurozone's debt to GDP ratio now stands at less than 90%, a big number, but well below the U.S. level of 100%, not to mention Japan's 227% ratio.

    The real rub is growth: The weak eurozone nations can barely grow as long as they remain in harnessed to the euro. As a result, an Italy or Greece can't generate the tax revenues to shrink those deficits, or lower their debt burden, nor can they generate the exports needed to create new jobs. In other words, the fiscal burdens that a "growth" nation such as the U.S. can handle prove insurmountable for countries that can't grow.

Competition at the core

    Why can't Europe's weaklings grow? The reason is basic: Their economies are uncompetitive on world markets so long as they're stuck with an extremely over-valued currency that they and their powerful northern neighbors seem determined to preserve. The easiest way to understand why the euro isn't working is to ask what would happen if the ailing nations restored their own currencies, so that their value was established by the market, instead of imposed upon them.

    If the world's consumers and investors voted with their dollars and yen for Greek or Italian products and plants, a new Drachma or Lira would be worth perhaps 30% less than the current euro. Conclusion: By shunning their goods at these prices, the global market is telling us that the stricken countries' currencies are overvalued by more than 40%.

    A Greece, Portugal, or Spain simply can't compete, or grow, with that handicap. A "fiscal compact" will not change the market's verdict.

    What's pummeling weaklings is a wonkish but crucial number called "unit labor costs." It refers to the labor cost of making one car, PC or backhoe. (Labor typically accounts for 70% of total expense.) Let's say it takes three workers an hour to make a widget in Spain, and two workers can do the same job in Germany, meaning that the German economy is a lot more productive. Nevertheless, the Spanish workers earn 90% of German wages. The Spanish widget is going to cost at least 25% more than the German model.