黑石高管2012年10大预言

    黑石顾问合伙人公司（Blackstone Advisory Partners）副董事长拜伦•维恩年初发表了2012年十大预测报告。他在担任摩根斯坦利（Morgan Stanley）首席美国投资战略家时就开始每年发布此项报告，迄今已有25年。

    关于预测，如果普通投资者认为只有三分之一的发生概率，拜伦会将其定义为“意外”；一旦他认为“可能”，则表明他认为发生的概率大于50%。

2012年十大预测

    1、页岩油气开采颠覆石油市场格局。石油价格回归至每桶85美元，美国对石油的进口开始不那么依赖中东。波兰、乌克兰等地的石油储备量也很充足。造成油价回落的因素包括利比亚和伊拉克石油产量增加，以及全球经济活动放缓导致需求减少。

    2、美国公司收入持续提高，标准普尔500指数上扬至1,400点以上。原材料价格持续走软，商界领袖通过利用科技降低劳动力和物流在产品和服务中所占的比重，保证了利润高企，从而成功适应了经济增长放缓的形势。

    3. 美国经济恢复元气。实际增长率将超过3%，失业率将下滑到8%以下。对经济衰退的恐惧，以及关于经济增长持久放缓将成为“新常态”的观点遭到质疑。资本支出、出口以及消费者三项因素推动经济增长并突破财政障碍。石油价格下跌以及股市上扬不仅会增强消费者的信心，同时也会改善消费模式。

    4、经济恢复和失业率下降有助于美国总统奥巴马向选民证明，他在首个任期内的表现并不算太差。人们觉得他是一位出色的演说家，但并非一位优秀的领袖，而其竞选对手米特•罗姆尼相对来说缺乏生气，对很多问题的立场也不明确。民主党将重新夺回众议院的控制权，但是会在反对现任议员的浪潮中丧失参议院的优势地位。

    5、欧洲终于出台了一项全面的计划，以处理其外债问题，并向财政统一又迈进一步。欧洲央行（European Central Bank）、国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund）、欧洲金融稳定基金（European Financial Stability Facility）和欧盟（European Union）团结一致，保住了欧盟，所有成员国仍然留在欧盟内，同时，欧元继续作为欧洲大陆的统一货币。希腊进行大规模债务重组；西班牙和爱尔兰年内有望增强财政实力，但意大利将开始“自愿”重组。银行系统崩盘得以避免，但外界强加的财政紧缩可能使得欧洲遭遇衰退。

    6、电脑取代常规军备，成为恐怖分子和地缘性反对派运用的主要武器。东欧和亚洲黑客侵入大型国际机构数据库，造成银行系统的暂时性关闭。倍感焦虑的20国集团（G-20）将召开会议，专门讨论这个问题。

    Byron Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory Partners, today published his list of surprises for 2012 -- following a 25-year tradition he began while still chief U.S. investment strategist at Morgan Stanley.

    Byron defines a "Surprise" as an event which the average investor would only assign a one out of three chance of taking place but which Byron believes is "probable," having a better than 50% likelihood of happening:

The Surprises of 2012

    1. The extraction of oil and gas from shale and rock begins to be a game changer. The price of oil drifts back to $85 a barrel and the United States becomes less dependent on Middle East supply. Deposits in Poland, Ukraine and elsewhere prove promising as well. Increased production from Libya and Iraq and reduced demand resulting from the slowdown in world-wide economic activity contribute to the price decline.

    2. Earnings for American corporations continue to move higher driving the Standard & Poor's 500 above 1400. Raw material prices continue soft and business leaders successfully adjust to slower economic growth by using technology to reduce the labor and logistical component of goods and services sold; profit margins stay high.

    3. The U.S. economy gets its second wind. Real growth exceeds 3% and the unemployment rate drops below 8%. Recession fears and even "the new normal" view of prolonged slow growth are called into question. Capital spending, exports and the consumer drive the economy, overcoming fiscal drag. The drop in the price of oil and the rise in the stock market improve both consumer confidence and spending patterns.

    4. The recovering economy and the declining unemployment rate help President Obama convince the voters that he didn't do such a bad job in his first term after all. He is viewed as a good speaker but a poor leader who is running against Mitt Romney, viewed as uninspired and whose positions on many issues are unclear. Democrats take back the House of Representatives but lose the Senate in an anti-incumbent wave.

    5. Europe finally develops a broad plan to deal with its sovereign debt problem and moves closer to fiscal cohesion. The European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the European Financial Stability Facility and the European Union band together to keep all the countries within the Union and to continue the euro as the Continent's currency. Greece has a major restructuring of its debt; Spain and Ireland strengthen their finances during the year, but Italy suffers a "voluntary" restructuring. A meltdown of the banks is avoided, but imposed austerity causes Europe to suffer a recession.

    6. The computer replaces conventional armaments as the principal weapon of terrorists and geopolitical adversaries. Eastern European and Asian hackers invade the data banks of major international financial institutions causing temporary bank closures. An alarmed G-20 meets to address the problem.