黑石高管2012年10大预言

    7、投资者担忧发达国家货币供应迅速增长，合理管理本国经济的国家，货币将受到投资者的追捧。北欧货币、澳元、新加坡元和韩元将从中受益。

    8、美国国会认识到其职能紊乱对两党都不利，并决定在11月总统选举之前处理国会削减赤字联席选择委员会的问题。这个委员会未能拿出方案，在10年内将美国预算赤字减少12,000万亿美元。国防和医疗预算大幅削减。农业补贴减少，针对石油、天然气和房地产合伙公司的减税有所调整。奥巴马承诺，如若连任，将继续执行布什减税计划的若干条款。

    9、阿拉伯国家的春天终于来临，阿萨德及其家族对叙利亚的统治终结。阿萨德政权倒台不可避免，在整个地区产生重要的连锁反应，削弱了哈马斯和赫兹布拉派的势力，并进一步孤立伊朗。

    10、新兴市场股市在两年的惨淡之后终于迎来了春天，经济增速接近10%。虽然增长稍稍趋缓，但是积极的评估将使得中国、印度和巴西的指数增长15-20%。

    如下几项未入选2012年十大预测之列，主要是因为我认为其发生概率不到50%，或者其重要程度不如我最终选定的十项预测。

    11、房市强势反弹。经济实力与高购买力这两项因素共同促使消费者回归房地产市场，并进行长期投资。过剩的空置房屋将逐步得到消化。

    12. 十年期美国国库券收益率提高到4%，因为中国会持续在硬资产和原材料方面大量投资，而不再大量将外汇储备用于购买发达国家的债券。

    13. 金价在2011年底调整之后，在2012年反弹至1,800美元/盎司。发达国家进行的货币政策调整使得个人投资者和主权财富基金重新向硬资产方面倾斜。银价也从中受益，价格升至40美元/盎司。

    14、国家和地方层面的财政纪律使得市政债券收益仍会继续下降。

    拜伦•维恩现任黑石顾问合伙人公司副董事长，曾任摩根斯坦利首席美国投资战略家。

    译者：李玫晓/汪皓

    7. Concerned over rapid money supply growth in the developed world, investors buy the currencies of countries that seem to be managing their economies sensibly. Scandinavian currencies, the Australian and Singapore dollar and the Korean won benefit.

    8. Congress decides its dysfunctionality is harmful to both parties and acts before the November election to deal with the failure of the Super Committee to develop a program to reduce the U.S. budget deficit by $1.2 trillion over ten years. Both defense and Medicare are cut significantly; subsidies for agriculture are reduced and tax deductions for oil, gas and real estate partnerships are modified. Obama pledges to let some aspects of the Bush tax cut program continue if he is reelected.

    9. The Arab Spring finally overcomes Bashar al-Assad and his family's rule over Syria ends. While Assad's fall might have been inevitable, it has important ripple effects throughout the region weakening Hamas, Hezbollah and further isolating Iran.

    10. After two years of poor stock market performance while their economies came through with high single-digit real growth the emerging markets finally have a good year. Growth slows somewhat but favorable valuations enable China, India and Brazil indexes to appreciate 15-20%.

    Below are several "also rans" which did not make the Ten Surprises list because (a) I did not think they had a more than 50% probability of happening and/or (b) they were not as important to investors as the ten I ultimately chose:

    11. Housing starts to pick up significantly. The strength in the economy coupled with record affordability encourages the consumer to come back into the market and make long term commitments. The overhang of vacant homes begins to be absorbed.

    12. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rises to 4% as China continues to invest heavily in hard assets and raw materials and pulls back from putting reserves into the bonds of developed nations.

    13. After correcting sharply toward the end of 2011 gold rebounds to $1800 during the year. Accommodative monetary policies throughout the developed world cause a renewed migration to hard assets by individual investors and sovereign wealth funds. Silver benefits also, rising to $40.

    14. Fiscal discipline at the state and local level allows the drop in yields for municipal bonds to continue.

    Byron Wien is vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory Partners, and is the former chief U.S> investment strategist for Morgan Stanley.