国际油价坚挺之谜

    显然，在如何处理伊朗问题上，克罗尼格的观点比美国当局更为激进，他的文章也不应解读为替美国政府表态，虽然他曾位居美国国防部长顾问之职。无论如何，如果说油价坚挺、伊朗的强硬举动和美国的强硬措辞传递了某种信息，那就是伊朗问题短期内不会消失。

历史油价

    假如对伊朗采取军事行动，需要思考的风险管理问题是：它将对油价产生什么影响？作为参照，我们在下面两张图中呈现了第一次和第二次海湾战争爆发前6个月和后爆发后6个月布伦特原油价格的走势。第一次海湾战争中，油价随着战争的临近而逐渐攀升，随着进攻开始，油价将近涨了一倍；但6个月之后，油价已经低于开战前的水平。而第二次海湾战争的状况稍微有些不同，因为预计战争可能持续较长时间，开战的消息反而令布伦特原油价格走低，但6个月后基本回到了开战前水平。

    目前，至少根据主流报道，没有人严肃考虑过要入侵伊朗，真正可能采取的行动，如果有的话，也只是战略性打击。因此，将海湾战争与可能对伊朗采取的行动相提并论或许并不准确。但反过来说，伊朗在全球石油供应中的地位要（比伊拉克）重要得多。具体来看，伊朗是继沙特和加拿大之后的全球原油储量第三大国，约占世界总量的10%。而且，伊朗还是继俄罗斯和沙特之后的第三大石油出口国。

    就在美伊双方围绕伊朗问题唇枪舌剑、明争暗斗的同时，有报道称，沙特的产能已接近每天1,000万桶。这意味着不管是伊朗封闭霍尔木兹海峡（哪怕只是一段时间），还是美国对伊朗实施战略性打击，导致伊朗部分产能关闭，沙特可供利用的闲置产能都非常有限。有鉴于此，我们不应对油价、特别是布伦特原油价格的坚挺感到惊讶。

    Obviously, Kroenig's view is more aggressive than the administration's in terms of how to deal with Iran, and his essay shouldn't be construed as carrying water for the administration, despite being a former advisor to the Secretary of Defense. Regardless, if the resilience of the price of oil, strong actions by the Iranians, and strong language by the Americans are telling us anything, it is that the Iranian issue is not going away in the short-term.

Historical oil prices

    In the scenario that military action is taken against Iran, the risk management question to ponder is: what will the impact on the price of oil be? As a proxy, in the two charts below, we evaluated how the price of Brent reacted in the six months leading to Gulf Wars I and II and the six months preceding. In Gulf War I, the price of oil ran up into the event and then almost doubled as the invasion ensued, but six months later was lower than the price at the start of the war. In Gulf War II, which was slightly different given the long anticipatory period, the price of Brent actually sold off on the news and six months later was basically at the same price.

    Currently, at least based on mainstream reports, an invasion of Iran is not being seriously contemplated, but rather the likely action, if any, would be a strategic strike, so it is perhaps somewhat inaccurate to compare the Gulf Wars to a potential action in Iran. Conversely, though, Iran is a much more critical player in the world oil supply. Specifically, after Saudi Arabia and Canada, Iran has the third most reserves globally, about 10% of the world's total. And Iran is the third largest oil exporter after Russia and Saudi Arabia.

    The heightened rhetoric relating to Iran comes at a time when Saudi Arabia is reportedly pumping close to capacity at 10 million barrels per day. This means that there is very little spare capacity in the event of either the Iranians closing, even if for a period of time, the Strait of Hormuz, or a strategic strike against Iran that shutters some of their production. Thus, we shouldn't be surprised by the resiliency in the price of oil, particularly Brent.