中国躲不过欧债危机

    过去三十年，中国经济增长令人瞩目。但更令人瞩目的是，近几年中国政府驾驭经济，维持强劲增长的举措。

    2008、2009年，全球其他地区深陷经济衰退之时，中国经济仍在以每年超过9%的速度增长。而且，让很多预测人士意外的是，本周早些时候中国政府又宣布，去年年末中国的经济增速超过预期。尽管欧债危机持续发展让投资者失去信心，去年第四季度中国的GDP增速仍达到了8.9%。不可否认，当季增速为两年半以来最低，但仍高于大多数人的预期。而且，可能更重要的是，经济增速高于8%，这个数字是经济学家认为创造足够就业所需的最低值。

    显然，中国有能力实现经济增长。但未来几个月（随着欧债危机继续演变），中国政府要实现经济学家所谓的“软着陆”，难度将大大增加。这项艰巨的任务包括既要将GDP增速从两位数降至适度的个位数（4%-7%），控制好通胀，同时还要为火爆的楼市降温，但又不能造成楼市崩盘。

    这些年来，中国经济之所以有如此出众的表现，是因为中国独有的经济微调能力，保证公共部门和私营部门的需求都得到满足。2008年金融危机爆发后，中国推出了一个庞大的经济刺激计划，基本上避免了经济衰退。中国政府投资了几十亿美元的基础设施项目，鼓励银行放贷，并向从住宅到拔地而起的办公楼在内的所有建设项目提供融资。而且，2010年，最发达国家还正在苦苦挣扎如何走出全球经济衰退的时候，中国已超过日本，成为仅次于美国的全球第二大经济体。

    但是，中国经济增长步伐太快了。特别是房价飙升，让房子成了无数人遥不可及的梦想。很多投资者开始担忧房地产泡沫是否会破裂，随后，中国政府实施了严厉的楼市调控政策，包括上调利率和收紧贷款标准等。

    如今，投资者担忧中国可能会出现经济增长不足，中国已逐步转向较为宽松的货币政策。尤其是中国政府已经指示商业银行增加放贷；与美国不同，这在中国是可行的，因为大型银行全都是国有银行。

    出口是关键

    但中国经济的强劲势头看来正在减弱，2012年可能是相当困难的一年。躲过了其他经济风暴的中国或许难逃欧债危机的冲击。中国2011年全年经济增速下滑至9.2%，虽然这样的增速对于美国和欧洲只能做做白日梦，但已经显著低于中国2010年的10.4%。中国上一次出现这么低的增速还要追溯到2009年全球金融危机时期。

    经济学家们普遍认为，经济增速至少达到8%才能实现软着陆。但最新的GDP数据显示，推动中国经济发展的重要力量——出口，正在呈现显著下滑。2011年12月份，中国的商品和服务出口额增长了13.4%，撇开新年假期造成的季节性偏差，这是2009年11月以来最低的出口增速。

    For the past three decades, China has seen impressive growth. Even more impressive is the way officials there have engineered a robust economy in recent years.

    While most of the rest of the world was mired in recession in 2008 and 2009, China's economy expanded by more than 9% annually. And to the surprise of many forecasters, officials announced earlier this week that China grew more than expected at the end of last year. GDP rose 8.9% during the fourth quarter, even as Europe's unfolding debt crisis unnerved investors. Admittedly, growth ended 2011 at the slowest pace in 2-1/2 years, but still higher than most expected. And perhaps more importantly, above the 8% minimum that economists believe is needed for sufficient job creation.

    It's clear that China can orchestrate economic growth. But in the coming months – given the fallout transpiring in Europe – it will prove much harder for officials to orchestrate what economists call a "soft landing." That's the daunting task of slowing double-digit GDP growth to mid single-digit growth and reining in inflation, and at the same time cooling its hot real estate market without crashing it.

    What has set China apart over the years is its unique ability to tweak its economy in a way that pleases both the public and private sectors. In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, China launched a massive stimulus plan and largely averted a recession. Officials invested billions in infrastructure projects and encouraged banks to lend and fund construction of everything from apartments to soaring office towers. What's more, in 2010, while most developed nations struggled to recover from the global recession, China's economy outpaced Japan to become the world's second-largest economy after the U.S.

    But then the Chinese economy was growing too fast. Prices for homes, in particular, skyrocketed and put home ownership out of reach for millions. And when many investors wondered if the property bubble would burst, officials implemented policies to reel in inflation by hiking interest rates and tightening lending standards.

    Now that investors worry China may not be growing enough, it has gradually shifted to looser monetary policies. Chiefly, the government has instructed banks to increase their lending, which, unlike in the U.S., is possible since all large banks are owned by the state.

    All about exports

    Yet China's resilience appears to be waning and 2012 could be a very tough year. The country that has avoided other economic headwinds may have more trouble escaping the wrath of Europe's debt crisis. China's growth for all of 2011 slipped to 9.2% -- a pace the U.S. and Europe could only dream of. But that's still markedly weaker growth from the 10.4% in 2010 and it's a pace last seen in 2009 during the global financial crisis.

    Economists widely believe that growth of at least 8% is needed for a soft landing. But the latest GDP figure highlights a significant drop in exports, which essentially drives China's economy. In December, Chinese goods and service sold abroad rose 13.4%, marking the slowest export growth since November 2009 aside from seasonal blips due to New Year holidays.