中国躲不过欧债危机

    “中国面临的风险是随着2012年推进，外部因素的负面效应将加大，”《如何在全球金融危机后维持中国经济增长》（Sustaining China's Economic Growth after the Global Financial Crisis）一书的作者、彼得森国际经济研究所（The Peterson Institute for International Economics）高级研究员尼古拉斯•拉迪表示。他说，出口增速放缓尤其令人担忧，特别是鉴于中国增速已连续四个季度下滑。欧洲（中国的一个主要市场）今年可能出现经济衰退的预期以及这对全球其他地区带来的广泛影响，可能使中国出口增速再降一个百分点。

    眼下，似乎中国能做的似乎也有这么多了。中国政府也不太容易再出台一个大规模的刺激计划。正如《华尔街日报》（the Wall Street Journal）的约瑟夫•斯登伯格所指，很多经济学家估计上一次经济刺激计划时获批的很多贷款将出现坏账。

    因此，虽然中国曾奇迹般地躲过了几场风暴，但这一次的欧债危机中国或许在劫难逃。

    "The risk for China is that the external factors would be more of a drag as we move in 2012," says Nicholas Lardy, author of Sustaining China's Economic Growth after the Global Financial Crisis and senior fellow at The Peterson Institute for International Economics. Lardy says the slowdown in exports is particularly worrisome, given that China's growth has been slowing down for the past four consecutive quarters. Expectations this year of a recession in Europe – one of China's key markets – and its possibly wider impact on the rest of the world could knock off another percentage point in exports.

    At this point, it seems China can only do so much. It likely won't be very easy for officials to dole out another massive stimulus plan. This comes, as Joseph Sternberg of the Wall Street Journal notes, as many economists expect some large portion of loans approved as part of the last package to go sour.

    So while it seems China has miraculously dodged more than a few headwinds, the crisis in Europe could be the malaise it can't escape.