美国银行业进入低回报时代

    虽然有这些结构性变化，美国大银行依然声称，将能把股东权益回报率重新提升至两位数，接近危机前的水平。投资者和分析师们姑且信之，但迄今失望透顶。人们普遍认为是这些银行的员工聪明，富有创新意识，人脉又广，他们总会找到办法，能解决自己制造的麻烦，回避新的监管限制，再度大赚其钱。

    但现在看来，这似乎永远也不会出现了。诚然，银行们会盈利，但30%以上的股东权益回报率已远去。剥离风险性自营交易和附属投资资金后，这些银行的经纪-交易业务和零售银行业务的利润率都非常低。

    目前，这些银行致力于通过削减支出来提高股东权益回报率。它们在减少浪费方面大多较为成功，但再砍下去就会抑制其业务模式。展望未来，如果它们对提高权益回报率是认真的，就必须要提高客户的服务费用或大幅削减员工薪酬。

    提高客户的服务费用，目前来看似乎对经纪和零售银行业务打击沉重。薪酬是银行有直接控制力的一个领域。虽然银行支付给员工的实际金额呈现下降，但相比银行总营收，薪酬变化不大，有些个案反而是上升。事实上，今年高盛将薪酬比率从39%提高到了42%，即便营收下降了26%。

    毫不逊色的是摩根士丹利，51%的薪酬比率是大银行中最高的，与去年水平差不多。摩根大通的投行薪酬比率则显著低于高盛和摩根士丹利，仅为34%。这或许一定程度上可以解释为何摩根大通的股东权益回报率高于高盛和摩根士丹利之和。

    今年将是银行业的关键转折年。要想提高股东权益回报率，它们所需做的不仅仅是恢复正常的经营情况，还要大幅上调收费、削减薪酬。与此同时，投资者和分析师们则需要重新思考在二十一世纪银行意味着什么，并对银行的赚钱能力持更现实的态度。

    但也不是毫无希望。虽然在不远的未来这些银行可能不会再有30%以上的股东权益回报率，但如果它们与时俱进，仍有望实现强劲的盈利。

    Despite the structural changes, the banks still maintain that they will be able to boost their returns on equity back up to double-digits, close to where they were before the crisis. Investors and analysts have been giving the banks the benefit of the doubt, but have since been sorely disappointed. The common view is that the employees at these firms are so smart, innovative and connected that they will find some way to get out of the mess they created, dodge the new regulatory constraints and eventually return to minting money.

    But it's now looking as if that will never happen. Sure, the banks will make a profit, but gone are the days where it could make ROE's north of 30%. Stripping out the risky proprietary trading and ancillary investing silos, the banks' broker-dealer and retail banking businesses are pretty low margin.

    For now, the banks are focusing on cutting spending to boost their ROE. They have largely been successful in cutting waste, but there is only so much they can cut without jeopardizing their business models. Going forward, the banks will need to either force their clients to pay more for the services they offer or cut employee compensation dramatically if they are serious about upping their ROE.

    Getting customers to pay more for services seems to have been a bust so far on both the brokerage and retail banking ends. Compensation is the one area that the banks have direct control over. While the amount the banks pay their employees has fallen in real terms, it has not budged relative to the firm's overall revenues and in some cases, it's actually gone up. Goldman actually increased its compensation ratio this year to 42% from 39%, even though revenues at the firm were down by 26%.

    Not to be upstaged, Morgan Stanley had the highest compensation ratio of the big banks at 51%, which is roughly where it was last year. Meanwhile, JP Morgan's investment bank had a compensation ratio that was significantly lower than that of Goldman or Morgan Stanley at just 34%. That might explain in part why JP Morgan's ROE was higher than that of both Goldman and Morgan Stanley, combined.

    This year will be a critical turning point for the banks. They will need more than just a return to normal business conditions to boost their ROE -- they will need to raise fees and cut compensation aggressively. At the same time, investors and analysts need to rethink what it means to be a bank in the 21st century and be more realistic about the industry's ability to make money.

    But it isn't all doom and gloom. While the banks probably won't report an ROE above 30% in the near future, they can still post some pretty strong profits if they roll with the times.