美国股民有望迎来分红旺季

    当然，灾难有可能发生，也的确会发生。众所周知，网络视频租赁公司Netflix在公司股价居高不下之时，投了10多亿美元用于股票回购，令公司在去年秋季陷入窘境，现金几近用罄的Netflix不得不施行了每股70美元的摊薄性融资。即便情况没那么糟糕，也不能确保在市场大幅震荡之时股票回购仍能支撑股价。高盛指出，股票回购的长期效应至多也只是好坏不一。

    股息。虽然高盛的研究没有指出，股息将有类似的大幅增长，但高盛分析师们确实预计返还给股东的现金水平将稳步增长——2011年有约14%的资本用于派息——与2002-2010年间的均值持平，高于2006-2008年间12%的水平。当时公司仍认为相比把现金返还给股东，他们能有更好的用途。问题是：如今固定收益投资的收益率仍低得可怜——10年期美国国债为2.04%，1年期只有区区0.11%。为自己找一只高派息股，就能占据先机。高盛列出了很多股息收益率具有吸引力且股息历史增长率较高的公司，包括辉瑞（再次出现！）、通用电气（General Electric）、可口可乐（Coca-Cola）和波音公司（Boeing）。有些股息收益率更高的股票可能风险略高一些，包括Och-Ziff Capital Management资产管理公司（股息收益率10.7%！）、通信公司威力众（Verizon，5.2%）和杜科能源（Duke Energy）（4.7%）。

    并购。现金收购的步伐似乎也在加快。市场研究机构Capital IQ的数据显示，过去12个月有很多美国大公司都打开了钱袋，进行大宗并购，包括米高梅集团（MGM Resorts，支付现金4.07亿美元）、Liberty Interactive传媒公司（1.85亿美元）、Allscripts Healthcare保健公司（1.215亿美元）和福特汽车（Ford Motor Company）（9,400万美元）。不是每个首席执行官都愿意承担这样的风险，换言之，还是有很多钱没花出去。

    那么，实体投资呢？如今这有更时髦的政治辞令“创造就业”。近期接受《财富》杂志（Fortune）采访的公司高管中只有不到一半的人表示，2012年预计将扩大员工招聘。2011年企业有38%的现金用于资本支出，仍低于39%的长期均值，甚至也低于2009年的42%。麦肯锡公司（McKinsey & Company）2011年9月的一项研究指出，虽然很多高管感觉公司对业务投资不足，但各行各业都在越来越多地回避可能的损失——在他们眼里，潜在损失比潜在收益更重。换言之，他们就是没有胆量做出大胆的决定。因此，他们可能会开始把现金返还给股东。

    因此，消息面是积极的，虽然利好也许有限。看来漫长的现金储藏期终于有望结束。如果公司想不出怎么投资或并购，他们就会把钱返还给股东。现在，需要有什么人让苹果公司的人知道在这个问题上（虽然这种情况很少见），他们并不比其他公司好多少，和其他公司也并没有什么不同。这些钱不是他们的，是股东们的。如果这些钱他们没有用，就该还给股东。

    Of course, disasters can—and do—happen. Netflix (NFLX) famously spent over $1 billion on share repurchases when its stock was flying high, leaving the company in a jam last fall that necessitated a dilutive financing at $70 a share because it had nearly run out of cash. Even in more benign circumstances, there's no guarantee that a buyback will offer any share price support in a volatile market. To its credit, Goldman points out that the long-term effect of buybacks on stock prices is mixed at best.

    Dividends. While Goldman's research doesn't point to a similar surge in dividends, its analysts do see a steady level of cash being returned to shareholders by such a route—some 14% of capital allocations in 2011—equal to the average from 2002 to 2010, and above the 12% levels of 2006 to 2008, when companies still thought they had better uses for their cash than just giving it back to shareholders. And here's the thing: fixed income investments remain at pathetic yields these days -- 2.04% for 10-year Treasuries or a paltry 0.11% for one-year notes. Find yourself a nice dividend-paying stock, and you're ahead of the game already. Goldman identifies a number of companies with both attractive yields plus historical dividend growth. They include Pfizer (again!), General Electric, Coca-Cola, and Boeing. Some higher-yielding stocks that might be a bit riskier include Och-Ziff Capital Management (a 10.7% yield!), Verizon (5.2%), and Duke Energy (4.7%).

    Mergers and acquisitions. The pace of cash acquisitions seems to be picking up as well. According to Capital IQ, a number of major U.S. companies opened their wallets for major M&A moves over the last 12 months, including MGM Resorts ($407 million in cash spent), Liberty Interactive ($185 million), Allscripts Healthcare ($121.5 million) and Ford Motor Company ($94 million). Not every CEO is trigger-shy, in other words, and there is big money out there waiting to be put to use.

    And what of actual corporate investment—now known by its trendy political moniker, "job creation?" Fewer than half of executives polled recently by Fortune said they expect to increase their headcount in 2012. Companies allocated 38% of their cash use on capital expenditures in 2011, which is still below the long-term average of 39% and even below 2009 levels of 42%. A September 2011 study by McKinsey & Company pointed out that while large numbers of executives felt their companies were underinvesting in their business, a rise in loss aversion—weighing potential losses significantly more than equivalent gains—has taken hold across all manner of industries. In other words, they're suffering from an inability to make bold decisions. So they might as well start giving it back to shareholders.

    So the news is positive, if only on the margins. And it seems as if the long night of cash hoarding might finally be coming to a close. If companies can't figure out how to invest their money or spend it on M&A, they're going to give it back to their shareholders. Now someone just needs to let the people at Apple know that in this one rare instance, they are not better or different than everyone around them. It's not their money—it's their shareholders'. If they've got no use for it, give it back.