日本可能成为全球金融危机新的引爆点

    与此同时，坚挺的日元导致进口商品价格比国产商品更便宜，忠诚的日本消费者也开始有所动摇，进一步加剧了日本的贸易逆差。12月份，日本实际进口额增长了4.1%，而此前的预期是下降1.4%，实际远超预期。随着日元升值，日本消费者开始越来越习惯于购买进口商品，这股趋势预计将得到延续。

    坚挺的日元以及持续的低利率对忠诚的日本投资者也产生了影响。虽然目前大部分日本资产仍然放在利息极低的银行账户和日本国债中，过去两年已有一部分资产通过共同基金投资收益率较高的国际证券。与此同时，外国投资者持有日本债券的比例也在上升，高盛（Goldman Sachs）的数据显示，这个数字已从去年的5%升至8%左右。外国投资者持有的短期债券比例过去十年增长了一倍，现已逼近20%。

    十年来日本政府一直在努力降低日元汇率，但始终没有进展。它不停地执行了多轮量化宽松政策，即日本央行用新印的日元向银行回购日本国债，增加货币供应量。去年日本央行实施了三轮量化宽松，但日元依然持续升值。周二，日本央行出人意料地宣布扩大量化宽松计划，再向银行体系注入1,300亿美元。日元汇率小幅下降，但预计新增的货币供应不会对日元汇率产生持续的影响。

    随着日本传统的债务保障体系出现裂缝，日元升值，华尔街的“债券保安团”有望复制去年在欧洲的战绩。日本利率和日本CDS之间的利差意味着外国投资者越来越担心日本政府的信用度。这种担心是可以理解的，毕竟日本政府今年的税收收入将仅及预算的40%。

    虽然一切迹象都很清楚，日本的债务保障体系出了问题，但日本国债收益率仍低于1%，让日本政府还是能以很低的成本继续借钱。但去年日本债券和CDS的剧烈波动意味着已经出现软肋，即便是一次并不严重的信用事件也可能导致日本国内外债券投资者夺路而走，一夜间将日本主权债券的收益率推至极高水平——去年意大利的情况就是如此。

    日本要躲过这场债务之灾绝非易事。它可以试着将货币供应总量增加一倍或两倍，借助通胀摆脱危机，但这同时也会导致日本的储蓄大幅缩水。日本政府也可以实施一些严厉的紧缩措施，减少支出，或者调高税负，增加政府收入，但这两种做法都会对经济增长产生严重后果。目前日本政府提议的、最激进的举措是到2014年，将日本的销售税提高至8%，第二年再升至10%，但这些对于日本堆积如山的债务来说可能只是杯水车薪。

    日本最终将于何时不堪债务重负，目前仍不得而知。但未来几年，日本的老龄化人口将大批退休，这些人将卖出所有的债券，停止买入，届时日本政府将再也无法继续依靠国民融资。随着日本债务保障体系受损，这一天的到来可能会比任何人预想的都要快。

    Meanwhile, the loyal Japanese consumer has started to stray a bit as the strong yen has made foreign goods look relatively cheap compared to domestic products, further exacerbating the nation's trade deficit. Real imports into Japan in December exceeded expectations of a 1.4% contraction to a 4.1% increase. This trend is expected to continue as the yen strengthens and Japanese consumers become more comfortable buying foreign goods.

    The strong yen and prolonged weak interest rates are also affecting the loyal Japanese investor. While the vast majority of Japanese assets still remain parked at the bank and in government bonds yielding little interest, there has been a shift in the past two years to invest in higher-yielding international securities offered through mutual funds. At the same time, foreign ownership of Japanese debt is on the rise, going from 5% last year to around 8%, according to Goldman Sachs. The share of short-term debt held by foreigners has now doubled in the last decade to just below 20%.

    The Japanese government has tried to weaken the yen for a decade to no avail. It has incessantly engaged in multiple rounds of quantitative easing, which is when the central bank buys back its bonds from the banks with freshly printed cash, thus inflating the money supply. The BOJ engaged in three rounds of QE last year, but the yen kept strengthening. On Tuesday, the BOJ surprised the markets and announced an expansion of its QE program, injecting an additional $130 billion into the banking system. The yen weakened a bit, but the additional QE isn't expected to have a lasting effect on its value.

    With Japan's traditional debt defenses damaged and the yen increasing in value, the stage is set for the Wall Street bond vigilantes to make their mark as they did in Europe last year. The difference in yields between Japanese interest rates and Japanese CDS implies that foreigners are growing concerned as to the creditworthiness of the Japanese government. That's understandable given that the government will bring in only 40% of what it needs this year in taxes to cover its budget.

    Despite all the clear signs of trouble and the damage to its debt defenses, Japanese sovereign debt is still trading below 1%, making it easy for the government to continue borrowing. But the volatile trading in Japanese bonds and CDS in the last year implies a vulnerability where even a mild credit event could trigger a run on the sovereign by both foreign and domestic bondholders, sending government borrowing rates skyrocketing overnight - just as it did in Italy last year.

    There seems to be no easy way for Japan to escape this debt prison. It could try to inflate its way out of the mess by doubling or tripling the entire money supply, but that would effectively decimate the nation's savings. The government could implement some draconian austerity measures to rein in spending or hike up taxes to increase revenue, but both moves would have severe consequences on economic growth. The boldest move the government is proposing is to hike the nation's sales tax to 8% by 2014, which would increase to 10% in the following year, but that isn't enough to make a dent in the debt pile.

    There is no way to know when Japan will finally succumb to its debts. Japan's aging population will be retiring in droves over the next few years, meaning that they will stop buying and start liquidating their bonds, eliminating the government's ability to fund itself. With Japan's debt defenses compromised, that day of reckoning could be coming up much sooner than anyone can imagine.

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