希腊救助方案埋下更大祸根

    如果私营投资者继续回避欧洲主权债券投资，欧洲央行的这种应急行为可能需要常态化。过早欧洲央行过早抽身，将可能导致整个体系崩溃，迫使当局采取进行新一轮的救助行动。届时，欧洲领导人们希望最近扩容后的欧洲救助基金已经获得批准，可以动用约5,000-7,500亿欧元的资金为欧债流拍提供支撑，并将利率维持在合理水平。

    但在此之前，人们普遍相信葡萄牙（可能还有爱尔兰）将寻求某种形式的减债，可能导致整个体系重陷混乱。葡萄牙是交易员们密切关注的一个国家。由于担心不远的将来，葡萄牙可能爆发某种形式的信贷事件，葡萄牙债券和CDS的交易都已降至极低水平。欧债交易商们告诉《财富》杂志（Fortune），他们现在已不做主权债券，转而专注于欧洲公司债，因为在公司债中他们不会被划为二等公民。如果这种趋势得以延续，葡萄牙政府在筹措资金时将遇到大麻烦，很多人预计新一轮的大规模救助将不可避免。

    译者：早稻米

    This once extraordinary action made on behalf of the ECB may need to be made permanent if private investors continue to shy away from European sovereigns. Pulling out prematurely could cause the system to collapse, forcing another round of bailouts. By that time, European leaders hope to have the newly enlarged European bailout fund authorized and ready for use with around 500 to 750 billion euros to backstop any possible future failed auctions and to keep interest rates at reasonable levels.

    But before then, it is largely believed that Portugal and possibly Ireland will try and get some sort of haircut on their debt, throwing the system back into turmoil. Portugal is the one country traders are watching intently. Trading in Portuguese bonds and CDS has dried up on anticipation of some sort of credit event rumbling the nation in the near future. European bond traders tell Fortune they are forgoing sovereign debt and focusing on the nation's corporate bonds where they know they won't be regulated to second-class status. If this continues, Portugal's government will need some serious help when it goes out to raise cash, leading to what many believe would be another nasty bailout.