巴菲特第39年跑赢大盘

    2011年拖累伯克希尔利润的另一个因素是房地产行业未能出现复苏。一年前对楼市相对乐观的巴菲特如今承认自己“大错特错”。

    伯克希尔不仅持有美国最大的预制屋生产商克莱顿房屋公司（Clayton Homes），还持有其他四家房地产相关公司Acme Brick、Shaw（地毯）、Johns Manville （隔热层）以及Mitek（建筑产品）。2006年，这些业务合计税前利润高达18亿美元，但2011年仅为5.13亿美元。

    巴菲特认为眼下的房地产市场仍陷于特殊的“萧条期”。但他相信，状况正在稳步好转，。美国经济中大多数其他行业已经出现明显的复苏迹象，与此一致，房地产行业也将会出现回升。

    再来看看好消息。巴菲特给伯克希尔旗下最大的非保险类公司BNSF、Iscar、路博润（Lubrizol）、Marmon Group和MidAmerican Energy取了个新的绰号，称赞它们是“非凡五人组”。2011年，这五家公司的合计税前净利润超过了90亿美元（包括伯克希尔于9月份收购路博润前该公司大半年的利润）。巴菲特在致股东的公开信中称，他预计五家公司今年的利润都将创造新高。

    BNSF是美国最大的铁路公司之一，自2010年初被伯克希尔收购以来一直表现不凡。去年，该公司税前净利润为47.4亿美元，高于2010年的约40亿美元，增长超过了18%。

    本文作者是《财富》杂志的资深自由编辑卡罗尔•卢米斯，她是沃伦•巴菲特的老朋友，也是伯克希尔哈撒韦的股东。她已经连续35年义务担当沃伦•巴菲特致股东公开信的编辑。

    Another downer for Berkshire's profits in 2011 was the failure of the housing industry to rebound. A relative optimist a year ago about housing, Buffett admits now to having been "dead wrong."

    Berkshire owns not only the largest producer of homes in the U.S. -- Clayton Homes, which manufactures housing -- but also four other housing-related businesses: Acme Brick, Shaw (carpets), Johns Manville (insulation), and Mitek (building products). Together, these businesses had $1.8 billion in pre-tax profits back in 2006. In 2011, pre-tax profits were a measly $513 million.

    Right now, Buffett views housing as still stuck in its own special "depression." But he believes the situation is easing steadily and that the industry will make a comeback consistent with that already visible in most other sectors of the economy.

    On the good-news front, Buffett gave a new label to Berkshire's largest non-insurance businesses, calling them the "fabulous five." They are BNSF, Iscar, Lubrizol, Marmon Group, and MidAmerican Energy. Their combined pre-tax earnings in 2011 were more than $9 billion (though that includes more than half a year of Lubrizol profits that were earned before Berkshire bought Lubrizol in September). Buffett says in his letter that he expects each of the five to set a new profit record this year.

    BNSF, one of the nation's largest railroads, has been a star since it was purchased by Berkshire in early 2010. Its pre-tax profits last year were $4.74 billion, up from about $4 billion in 2010, a gain of more than 18%.

    The writer of this article, FORTUNE senior editor-at-large Carol Loomis, is a longtime friend of Warren Buffett's and a shareholder of Berkshire Hathaway. She has been the pro bono editor of Buffett's annual letter to shareholders for 35 years.