美股反弹行情难以延续

    如果你相信很大程度上是企业盈利在推动股市的表现，那么股市的好光景可能会在今年某个时候戛然而止。S&P Capital IQ预计今年标普500家公司的盈利增幅将仅为6%，低于2011年全年的16%。而且，企业盈利放缓的迹象早已显现，2011年第四季度同比仅增长了8%。

    确实，上周三美联储主席本•伯南克对美国经济的看法也不是很乐观。他说，美国楼市依然疲弱，就业市场还“远远没有恢复正常”。另外，天然气价格的上涨也已威胁到消费者的购买力。

    美联储预计今年美国经济将仅增长2.2%- 2.7%，略快于2011年下半年。当然，过去伯南克的预测也有过严重失误的时候，但光凭美国经济转强就能最终撑起股市吗？我们显然有理由对此持怀疑态度。

    译者：早稻米

    If you believe that corporate profits largely drive the performance of the stock market, then it's likely that the good times in equities could come to a halt this year. Earnings for the S&P 500 are expected to rise just 6% this year, down from 16% in 2011, according to S&P Capital IQ. And profits have already shown signs of a slowdown, growing just 8% in the fourth quarter of 2011 compared with the same period in 2010.

    Indeed, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on Wednesday offered a tempered view of the U.S. economy. The housing market remains a drag, while the job market has been "far from normal," he says. All the while, rising gas prices threaten consumers' buying power.

    The Fed predicts the economy will grow only 2.2% to 2.7% this year, only slightly faster than it grew in the second half of 2011. Admittedly, Bernanke has been outrageously wrong before but it would only be fair for us to question if the basic ingredients that make a strong economy could, in the end, really prop up the stock market on its own.