希腊第三轮紧急援助可能无法避免

    相比于希腊债券持有者将承受的损失（1,000亿欧元），在CDS合约方面的损失显得微不足道。希腊各大银行将背负绝大多数损失，因为它们持有希腊主权债务大约一半的份额。幸运的是，欧洲央行（European Central Bank）已经开启了信贷阀门，正在向成员银行发放利率几乎为零的贷款，以帮助他们维持资本充足率。其他欧洲银行应该有能力消化因希腊债务而产生的损失，因为它们为防备此类信贷事件，这些年来一直在充实自身的贷款损失准备金。许多银行已经减记了手头持有的希腊债务的价值，减记幅度高达75%，因此它们应该有能力安然度过接下来的这几周，无需募集额外的资本。

希腊的未来

    那么，希腊现在的情况如何呢？为了获得1,300亿欧元的贷款，该国被迫对政府开支进行了极为严苛的削减，此举很有可能会促使该国经济坠入更严重的衰退之中。希腊的GDP在2011年下降了7%，目前依然呈自由落体之势。国内总体失业率达到21％，青年失业率达到了51％。由于希腊被迫裁掉数千名政府雇员以偿还债务，这两项失业率的统计数字预计还将继续上升。希腊现在正动用几乎所有的税收收入来支付债务利息。如果希腊无法获得从外部获得经济援助，任由目前的这种状况持续下去，它估计很快就会花光那笔1,300亿欧元的贷款。第三轮经济援助似乎无法避免。

    但希腊还可以采取另外一些措施，募集更多的收入。首先，该国终于可以认真考虑变卖国有资产的建议了。从闲置的土地到公用设施，希腊政府拥有大量可以变现的资产。这笔钱可用于创造就业培训计划、资助小企业。这样做有助于推动经济增长，经济的增长可以带来更多的收入，进而帮助该国支付债务利息。

    除了变卖资产，希腊人还应向欧盟和其邻国寻求更多的资助，并抑制进一步举债的冲动。刚刚过去的这个周末，希腊官员表示，他们将向欧洲投资银行（European Investment Bank）寻求10亿欧元的融资。但筹措更多的债务似乎是个错误。毕竟，虽然债务重组的确抹去了该国1,000亿的债务负担，但也增加了1,300亿欧元的新债务。实际上，债务互换只不过是把希腊的债务从私人手中转到公众手中而已。对希腊经济产生的净效应基本上是相同的，甚至从实质上来说，其实更糟糕，因为这次债务互换又为希腊增添了300亿欧元的债务负担。希腊需要的是增长，而不是更多的债务。

    摆在欧元区成员国面前的有两种选择：要么坐视希腊蹒跚不前，大约一年以后再来乞讨另一轮紧急援助，要么采取一些有效措施来稳定当前局势。比如，从2007年到2013年，希腊有权获得200亿欧元的欧盟结构基金拨款，但希腊仅仅动用了其中的80亿欧元。欧盟应该即刻向希腊拨付剩余的120亿欧元，以帮助该国从事一些刺激就业的投资。虽然对于一些经济体来说，120亿欧元可谓杯水车薪，但这笔钱可以在希腊收到立竿见影的效果。

    但希腊最终需要的是更多可以帮助其刺激经济的赠款。这意味着，位于其北部的欧元区邻国需要打开自己的钱包，用真金白银资助希腊，而不是向其发放贷款。虽然这种做法在政治上或许不受欢迎（特别是荷兰，该国脱离欧元区的言论甚嚣尘上），但把欧元区维系在一起，并要最终了结这场似乎无穷无尽的危机，最大希望或许就在于此。

    译者：任文科

    The losses on the CDS contracts pale in comparison to the 100 million euro haircut that Greek bondholders will suffer. Most of the losses will impact the large Greek banks as they hold around half of Greece's sovereign debt. Luckily, the European Central Bank has opened the spigot and is lending money at near zero percent to member banks to keep them well capitalized. Other European banks should be able to absorb Greek losses as they have had years to build up their loan loss reserves in anticipation of such a credit event. Many have already written down the value of their Greek debt by as much as 75%, so they should be able to make it through the next few weeks without needing to raise additional capital.

Greece's future

    So now what of Greece? The country was forced to make draconian cuts in government spending to secure the 130 billion euros, which should plunge the country further into an economic depression. Greek GDP fell 7% in 2011 and is in total free fall. General unemployment just hit 21% and youth unemployment just hit 51%. Both are expected to rise as the nation is forced to fire thousands of government workers to pay off its debts. Greece is now using nearly all of the cash it takes in from taxes to service its debt. If the country continues in this current state with no outside economic stimulus, it should burn through that 130 billion euros in no time. A third bailout seems inevitable.

    But there are some things Greece can do to raise some more revenue. For starters, it can finally get serious about selling off state assets. From excess land to utilities, the Greek government has a large portfolio of assets that can be liquidated. That money can be used to create job training programs or could be used as grants for small businesses. This will help grow the economy, which should bring in more revenue to help the country service its debts.

    In addition to selling assets, the Greeks should be seeking more grants from the EU and its neighbors and forgoing any new debt. This past weekend, Greek officials said that they would be seeking 1 billion euros in financing from the European Investment Bank. But more debt seems like a mistake. After all, while the restructuring did chop 100 billion euros off the nation's debt load, it also added 130 billion euros of fresh debt. In effect, the debt swap simply shifted Greek debt out of private hands and into public hands. The net effect on the Greek economy is basically the same, in fact, it's worse, as it adds another 30 billion euros to the pile. Greece needs growth, not more debt.

    The eurozone members can either watch Greece limp along and come begging for another bailout in a year or so, or they can do something to stabilize the situation. For example, Greece is entitled to 20 billion euros in EU structural fund grants from 2007 to 2013, of which they have used just 8 billion euros. The EU should release the remaining 12 billion euros to Greece immediately to help the country invest in some job-stimulating ventures. While 12 billion euros will barely move the needle in some economies, it could make a mark in Greece.

    But eventually Greece will need more grants to help stimulate its economy. That means that its northern eurozone neighbors will need to open their wallets and actually give instead of lend money to Greece. While that may be politically unpopular, especially in the Netherlands where talk of leaving the euro has been growing, it may be the best hope to keep the eurozone together and finally put an end to this seemingly never-ending crisis.