苹果股价能涨到1368美元吗？

     即便是苹果公司自己也不知道未来几年公司股价将处于什么水平，米兰诺认为，苹果的100亿美元回购计划并不明智。他认为，应用一次性特殊股息代替回购。如果苹果用980亿美元现金储备中的一半来向股东派息，每股派息将达53.60美元。（别忘了，今年第一季度苹果已经实现自由现金流160亿美元，可见其现金储备还在继续增长。）

    最重要的是，米兰诺认为，一次性派息可消除股票回购价格过高的风险，同时让现有股东获得即时回报，却无需承担股市涨跌的风险。

    “如果我是他们，我会完全剔除价格因素，”米兰诺称。“回购有点复杂——只在未来股价上涨时，回购才有意义。但股价是否会上涨，没人能提前预知。”

    苹果公司历来卓尔不群，这次却走了股票回购的老路。如果计划失败，股东们将蒙受损失。

    译者：早稻米

    Because not even Apple can know at which prices its shares will trade in the coming years, Milano thinks Apple's $10 billion buyback is misguided. Instead, he called for a special one-time dividend in lieu of buybacks. That could be a $53.60 dividend per share if Apple paid out just half of its $98 billion cash hoard to shareholders. (Remember, Apple recorded $16 billion in free cash flow in the first quarter, so the cash coffers are still growing.)

    Most importantly, a one-time dividend would eliminate the risk of paying too much for shares, Milano argues. It would also reward current shareholders without exposing them to the stock market's vicissitudes.

    "If I were them, I would have taken the price element out of it completely," says Milano. "Buybacks are a little tricky—they only make sense if share price goes up. But you have no idea if it will beforehand."

    Apple is an extraordinary company. But it went with convention on buybacks, leaving shareholders to suffer if its plan doesn't pay off.