慈善赌局龟兔赛跑，巴菲特正迎头赶上

    2011年是“巴菲特百万美元赌局”（The Million-Dollar Buffett Bet）十年之约的第四年，现在，这一年的结果已经出来了。沃伦•巴菲特在这场投资收益的竞赛中赌定，一支标准普尔500指数基金的表现将超过与其打赌的纽约资产管理公司Protégé Partners所选5支对冲基金组合的平均回报率。

    目前的名次（我们很快就将揭晓）不可避免地会让人想起这场十年之赌的第一年，也就是2008年，当时的结果刚出来时巴菲特的反应。

    那一年，双方在市场中都遭遇了重创。但Protégé所选基金（根据赌局约定，这些基金的名称从未公开披露过）平均“仅”下跌了23.9%。而巴菲特选出的Vanguard Admiral基金则下跌了37%.

    巴菲特当时的位置远远落在后面，他在接受《财富》（Fortune）杂志采访时称：“我只希望伊索的预言没错，乌龟最终将战胜野兔。”

    后来，事情的发展确实与龟兔赛跑的情节相似。巴菲特的指数基金“乌龟”在第二年和第三年连续两年胜出，而且（我在这里首次披露）第四年也占据了上风。倒不是说2011年的获胜者有多么了不起：Admiral基金仅涨了2.08%，但那5支“基金中的基金”却平均下跌了1.86%。

    这说明乌龟和野兔在第四年底都已气喘吁吁，根本没什么可值得庆贺的。Protégé仍然略微领先。但其“基金中的基金”四年来平均下跌了5.89%。Admiral基金则跌了6.27%。

    如果我们将这场赌约比作一场棒球比赛，四局后比分仍为0：0的平局，双方都没有得分，只能用力击打，而所有观看比赛的粉丝都兴味索然。

    不过，这场赌局倒是催生了一项不错的投资——完全出乎巴菲特和Protégé的预料。这里补充一点背景信息：当初的想法是为了确保能向获胜者选定的慈善机构提供100万美元的资金。如果巴菲特胜出，这些钱将捐献给奥马哈的慈善机构Girls Inc.；如果Protégé排在首位，受益者将是无保留援助儿童基金会 （Absolute Returns for Kids）。

    为了确保赌约结束时能提供这100万美元，巴菲特和Protégé分别出资约32万美元购买了合计64万美元的零息美国国债，预计到赌约结束时，这笔国债将价值100万美元。这一担保品由旧金山恒金基金会（Long Now Foundation）监管；该基金会管理着很多下注方设立的“长线赌约”。

    Results are in for 2011, the fourth year of the 10-year wager that is sometimes called, rather loosely, The Million-Dollar Buffett Bet. In this competition about investment performance, Warren Buffett is contending that an S&P 500 index fund will outscore the average return of five hedge funds of funds picked by his betting opponent, New York asset management firm Protégé Partners.

    The standings now -- which we will reveal in a minute -- inevitably bring to mind Buffett's reaction after the bet's first year, 2008.

    Both sides were clobbered in that market year from hell. But Protégé's fund-of-funds picks (whose names, by the terms of the bet, have never been publicly disclosed) were down, on the average, by "only" 23.9%. Vanguard's Admiral shares, which are Buffett's entry in the bet, lost a dismal 37%.

    From this way-behind position, Buffett was quoted in Fortune as saying, "I just hope that Aesop was right when he envisioned the tortoise overtaking the hare."

    And that's close to what has since happened. Buffett's index-fund tortoise won the second and third years and -- you are reading it here first -- also prevailed in the fourth. Not that the 2011 winner was much of a star: Admiral shares were up only 2.08%. But the five funds of funds, on the average, were down 1.86%.

    All of which leaves tortoise and hare gasping alongside each other at the end of four years -- and having absolutely nothing to cheer about. Protégé is still a bit ahead. But its funds of funds, on the average, are in the minus column for the period by 5.89%. Admiral shares are down 6.27%.

    If we really mix metaphors and think about this contest as a baseball game, what we have here is a 0-to-0 tie after four innings, with each side doing nothing but striking out and alienating every fan watching.

    The wager, however, has produced one sterling investment over the four years -- and that was made, without brilliance aforethought, by Buffett and Protégé themselves. A little background: The idea was to set terms that would deliver $1 million to a charity chosen by the winner. If Buffett triumphs, the money goes to Girls Inc. of Omaha; if it's Protégé on top, the beneficiary is Absolute Returns for Kids.

    To ensure that $1 million would be there at the end of the bet, Buffett and Protégé each put up roughly $320,000 to buy a zero-coupon Treasury security. The total of about $640,000 was used to purchase a bond that will be worth $1 million at the bet's conclusion. This collateral is being overseen by the Long Now Foundation of San Francisco, which administers "long bets" set up by any competitors wanting to memorialize a gamble.