慈善赌局龟兔赛跑，巴菲特正迎头赶上

    在利率下降时代（我们当前自然正处于这样一个时期），零息债券的市场价格会很快接近到期价格——此案即100万美元。最近，巴菲特与Protégé合购的债券已价值约93万美元，这意味着过去四年来，该债券已较买入价涨了45%。虽然这样的回报率比不上投资苹果公司（Apple）的股票，但在股市整体低迷时期，这样的回报已经非常可观。

    参与打赌的双方——巴菲特和Protégé合伙人泰德•塞迪斯都很清楚，在该赌约剩下的近6年时间里，零息债券在当前价格之上的回报将相当有限。债券的到期价值100万美元将是封顶的回报。坐等到期的想法自然没有吸引力，塞迪斯表示：“我们预计年这笔投资的回报率比1%高不了多少。”

    因此，几周前双方开始同恒金基金会协商，打算出售这笔零息债券，所得将另行投资，希望等赌约到期时可向选中慈善机构提供超过100万美元的资金。第一个计划是将所得的一半投资于巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（Berkshire Hathaway），另一半投资Protégé管理的一支“基金中的基金”（一直以来，人们都觉得那会是Protégé选择用于打赌的5支基金中的某一支）。但这个计划未获通过，因为它将要求恒金基金会成为那支基金的合作伙伴，由于证券法的种种繁琐规定，恒金基金会并不符合“合格购买人”的定义。

    因此，后来有了第二个计划，并已付诸实施。该计划要求出售上述债券，所得全部投资伯克希尔哈撒韦股票。

    如果情况糟糕，等到2017年12月31日该赌约到期时，现在购入伯克希尔股票的93万美元届时可能达不到100万美元。为此，巴菲特已允诺，恒金基金会可在赌约到期时将这些股票“卖给”他（或他的公司）获得100万美元。换言之，100万美元是慈善机构能获得的最低捐献，投资伯克希尔股票则有望提供更多资金。

    与此同时，乌龟和野兔面对的是2012年的有利市场。迄今看来，等到今年年底，也就是十年之赌赛程中段时，其中一方、甚至双方都有望出现累计正回报——真是峰回路转啊！

    本文作者是《财富》杂志的资深编辑卡罗尔•卢米斯，她是沃伦•巴菲特的老朋友，也是伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的股东之一。并为沃伦•巴菲特致股东公开信担任编辑工作。

    译者：早稻米

    In a period of declining interest rates, which we certainly have had, what happens to a zero-coupon bond is that its market price races toward the maturity value -- $1 million in this case. Recently, the value of the Buffett-Protégé bond was about $930,000, which means that in just over four years it is up 45% from the purchase price. That doesn't match the payoff from Apple (AAPL), but it's a heck of a run during a time when the general stock market was a dog.

    Both Buffett and Ted Seides, the Protégé partner who engineered the 10-year-bet, are well aware that the returns to be earned by the zero-coupon bond from its price today can be no better than meager for the nearly six years left in the bet. That's because the ceiling is the bond's maturity value of $1 million. The view is definitely unappealing, says Seides: "We're looking at annual returns that won't be much better than 1%."

    So the two sides began a few weeks ago to talk to the Long Now Foundation about its selling the zero-coupon bond and putting the proceeds into an investment that putatively could deliver the winning charity more than $1 million when the bet winds up. The first plan discussed was for half of the proceeds to be invested in Buffett's company, Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA), and the other half to be invested in a fund of funds that Protégé runs (and that has always been assumed to be one of the five funds of funds that Protégé picked for the bet). But that plan died because it would have required Long Now to become a partner in the fund and, for complex reasons arising from the securities laws, it did not meet the definition of a "qualified purchaser."

    So a second plan was devised and is now going forward. It calls for the bond to be sold and the total proceeds to be invested in Berkshire Hathaway stock.

    Naturally, some set of dire circumstances could make the roughly $930,000 put into Berkshire worth less than $1 million at the bet's conclusion on December 31, 2017. So Buffett has guaranteed $1 million by giving Long Now the right at the bet's conclusion to "put" the stock to him (or his estate) in exchange for that amount. In other words, $1 million becomes the floor for the winning charity, with the Berkshire investment establishing the prospect for more.

    Meanwhile, the tortoise and the hare are dealing with the good market of 2012, which so far is suggesting that one or both might show -- how radical! -- a cumulative profit when the halfway mark in the bet is reached at the end of this year.

    FORTUNE senior editor-at-large Carol Loomis, who wrote this article, is a longtime friend of Warren Buffett's, a Berkshire Hathaway shareholder, and editor of his annual letter to shareholders.