美股风向标：第一财报季四大看点

    巴特斯补充道，消费品公司特别容易受到冲击，如耐克（Nike）、Cheerios麦圈和Yoplait酸奶的生产厂家通用磨坊（General Mills）以及Carnival的邮轮航线等。

    虽然美国航空业去年在油价飙升背景下努力实现了盈利，但今年机票价格和各种附加费上涨可能仍不足以成为盈利保障。国际航空运输协会（International Air Transport Association）3月份的报告指出，燃料成本可能导致全球航空业利润下降62%，降幅大于该协会5个月前做出的预测。它预计，航空业净利润将从去年的79亿美元降至30亿美元。

欧元汇率

    近月来欧债危机持续推动美元对欧元走强。今年年初，欧元平均降至约1.31美元，低于去年差不多同期的1.37美元。

    由于有几家美国公司的年营收大部分来自国际市场，汇率波动可能导致数百万美元的盈利波动。对于那些在欧洲有大幅销售额的公司，美元对欧元走强自然会导致净利润走低。

    以麦当劳（McDonald's）为例。这家总部位于芝加哥西郊橡溪镇的快餐连锁企业在经济衰退和随后的岁月中几乎没有受到大的打击。但风向即将逆转。去年，麦当劳在欧洲实现营收109亿美元，占总营收的40%。汇兑收益将其每股收益提升了19美分，但今年汇兑因素可能对这家公司造成不利影响。麦当劳在1月份的投资者电话会议中警告称，汇兑因素（主要是欧元）可能拉低收益，导致2012年每股收益减少16-18美分。

    麦当劳预计将于4月20日发布财报。

    译者：老榆木

    Butters adds that consumer-focused companies, such as Nike (NKE), General Mills (GIS), maker of Cheerios and Yoplait yogurt, as well as Carnival (CCL) cruise lines, are especially vulnerable.

    And while the U.S. airline industry managed to turn profits amid soaring fuel prices last year, raising ticket prices and fees might not help cushion margins this year. Fuel costs could cause profits across the world's airline industry to plunge 62%, according to the International Air Transport Association's March report. That's a bigger drop than the trade group predicted five months ago. It forecasts that carriers' net profit could fall to $3 billion in 2012 from $7.9 billion last year.

The power of the euro

    In recent months, Europe's ongoing debt crisis has helped strengthen the U.S. dollar against a weakening euro. At the start of this year, the euro on average weakened to about $1.31, compared with $1.37 around the same period last year.

    Because several U.S. companies derive a majority of annual revenues from international markets, swings in exchange rates can translate to millions of dollars in earnings. And for companies with big sales in Europe, a stronger greenback relative to the euro could certainly slow earnings.

    Take McDonald's (MCD). It rode out the recession and the months following almost unscathed. But headwinds are on the horizon. Last year, the Oak Brook-based restaurant chain generated $10.9 billion or 40% of its revenue in Europe. Foreign exchange boosted its earnings by 19 cents per share, but that will likely work against the company this year. During a call with investors in January, the company warned that foreign currency conversion, primarily driven by the euro, could drag down per-share earnings by 16 to 18 cents in 2012.

    McDonald's is expected to report earnings on April 20.