摩根士丹利看淡欧元区边缘国家

    摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）不再看好“欧猪五国”（PIIGS，即欧洲债务危机最严重的五个国家——葡萄牙、爱尔兰、意大利、希腊和西班牙）。

    从截至一季度末的数据看，如果“欧猪五国”的公债价格下跌，摩根士丹利将获利，因为它基本上赌定欧洲这五个最弱的经济体其财政状况将越来越糟。摩根士丹利最大的空头敞口是葡萄牙，但如果意大利或西班牙的公债价格下跌，它也会获益。

    总的来说，这样的“敞口”相比摩根士丹利的公司规模和其他仓位不是特别大。而且，从截至一季度末的数据看，如果法国和其他欧洲国家的公债价格下跌，摩根士丹利也可能亏钱。分析师和投资者们表示，他们并不是很关注摩根士丹利看空葡萄牙和其他欧洲弱国，也不认为这是摩根士丹利的一大投资风险或利润来源。

    但做空所谓的“欧洲五国”仍有显著意义，这反映了摩根士丹利对欧洲看法的转变。去年9月，由于市场担心如果欧洲财政状况恶化，摩根士丹利可能损失几百亿美元，摩根士丹利股价大跌。而且，转变也相对较快。2011年底，摩根士丹利还有几十亿美元的敞口，赌定葡萄牙和其他国家政府的财政状况将改善。上述披露详见4月19日摩根士丹利发布的一季报；摩根士丹利的一季报好于预期。

    这部分“敞口”包含了一系列复杂的交易，包括直接持有的公债、摩根士丹利与对手的交易敞口，信用违约掉期（CDS）等衍生品。摩根士丹利看来已卖出逾10亿美元的CDS合约，基本上是债券保险——如果葡萄牙和其他所谓欧元区边缘国家的公债出现违约，摩根士丹利必须予以赔付。过去一个月，摩根士丹利直接看空这些国家的敞口也增加了一倍多。而且，摩根士丹利似乎还显著减少了与这些外国政府的交易。

    总体而言，摩根士丹利看空欧元区边缘国家的敞口有6.18亿美元，其中超过一半是针对葡萄牙。根据摩根士丹利财务报表中的注释，摩根士丹利1月初显著减少了意大利敞口。摩根士丹利发言人拒绝置评。

    目前尚不清楚这些敞口如今表现如何。葡萄牙公债继年初大跌后，目前价格已差不多回到原先水平。而且，看起来摩根士丹利也不是完全回避欧洲。该行目前有40亿美元的法国敞口，较三个月前增加了一倍多。

    译者：早稻米

    Morgan Stanley is no "long"-er being PIIGy.

    As of the end of the first quarter, Morgan (MS) was positioned to profit if the government debt of Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain fell in value, essentially betting that financial condition in Europe's weakest nations is set to get worse. Morgan's biggest "bet" is against Portugal. But it would also benefit if prices of the government debt of Italy or Spain fell as well.

    Overall, the "bet" isn't particularly large compared to the size of the firm and its other positions. And it appears Morgan could lose money if the debt of France and other European nations drops in value. Analysts and investors say they aren't focused on bet against Portugal and the other weaker European nations as a major risk, or source of profits, for the firm.

    But the bet against the so-called PIIG nations is significant because it appears to be a shift for Morgan in its thinking on Europe. Back in September, shares of Morgan plunged on fears that it would lose tens of billions of dollars if the financial condition of Europe worsened. What's more, it's a relatively rapid shift. As recently as the end of 2011, Morgan Stanley had billions of dollars riding on the fact that he financial condition of the governments of Portugal and others would improve. The disclosure came today as part of the announcement of Morgan's first quarter earnings, which were better than expected.

    The "bet" is a series of complex transactions including direct holdings of government bet, exposure from transactions the firm has made with counterparties and derivatives such as credit default swaps. Morgan appears to have sold just over a $1 billion in CDS contracts, essentially bond insurance that the firm would have to pay out in the case of a default, against the debts of Portugal and the other so-called Euro peripherals. The firm has also more than doubled its direct bet against the debts of the countries in the past month. What's more, the company seems to have significantly cut back its trading with those foreign governments.

    Overall, Morgan has $618 million bet against the Euro peripherals. More than half of the bet is against Portugal. According to a note in its financial statements, Morgan Stanley significantly reduced its exposure to Italy in early January. A Morgan spokesperson declined to comment.

    It's not clear how well the bets are doing. Portugal bonds, after plunging in value early in the year, have nearly recovered all of their losses. What's more, it appears Morgan isn't completely shying away from Europe. The bank now has a $4 billion exposure to France, more than double what it had three months ago.