Facebook IPO能否回馈投资者

    上月，《财富》（Fortune）曾经质疑如果Facebook估值1000亿美元，那么其股票是否还值得购入。当时的结论是：或许值得购买！昨天又传来新消息：Facebook计划将其首次公开募股（IPO）发行股价定在28至35美元之间，这意味着这家年轻的科技巨头有望实现770亿至960亿美元的估值。

    我们曾分析过如果Facebook估值达到1000亿美元，将会面临哪些障碍。不过，如果在首发日其股票的交易价接近最低定价区间，比如说为28美元，而且当日未实现反弹呢？那样的情况将预示怎样的前景？

    按照EVA Dimensions公司【该公司提出了著名的经济增加值（EVA）理论——译注】计算的数据，每股28美元意味着市场认为Facebook营收到2021年有望突破500亿美元大关，换句话说，Facebook营收的年复合增长率要达到30%！这个数字令人惊讶，不过，相较于1000亿美元估值，即年营收达到680亿美元，前者看来要容易实现得多。上述营收有一个前提条件：从现在起，Facebook的利润率不会严重恶化。（考虑到Facebook的资金成本，其利润率可谓高得吓人。去年，Facebook取得了37亿美元营收，利润为10亿美元——EVA Dimensions称之为“垄断企业利润率”。）

    我们之前提过，谷歌（Google）也曾碰到过类似难题，不过它最终发展到与其估值相符，而其股价也扶摇直上，投资者们从85美元飞上云霄，最终达到650美元。

    Facebook股票将来的走势很难预测。如果你认为Facebook营收将继续疯狂增长，而利润率又不会急剧下滑的话，那么现在似乎正是购入良机。如果你质疑其增长态势，那么请不要出手。

    Last month, Fortune asked if Facebook's stock was worth buying if the company is valued at $100 billion. The conclusion: It might be! Then came news yesterday that Facebook will price its IPO between $28 and $35 a share, implying a valuation between $77 billion and $96 billion for the young tech giant.

    We've already said what kinds of hurdles Facebook faces with a $100 billion valuation. But what if shares trade near the low-end of the spectrum, say for $28, and don't bounce on the first day of trading? What kind of prospects does the stock offer then?

    According to the numbers crunchers at EVA Dimensions, a $28 share price means the market thinks Facebook will grow to sales of just over $50 billion in the year 2021. That's still an impressive 30% annual compound growth rate, but it seems much easier to achieve than the $68 billion in sales implied by a $100 billion valuation. Those sales figures assume that Facebook's margins don't deteriorate badly from here. (Facebook, it turns out, earns amazing profit margins when you consider its capital costs. Last year it earned $1 billion on just $3.7 billion in sales— what EVA Dimensions calls "monopoly-like margins.")

    We've said before, Google (GOOG) once faced the same hurdles but eventually grew into its valuation, and took stock investors on a ride from $85 to $650 along the way.

    There's no easy take on Facebook stock. If you believe it can continue its torrid sales growth without killing margins, the stock looks like an amazing opportunity. If you doubt it can continue boosting sales, stay away.