巴菲特股东大会见闻：投资者不看好Facebook

    尽管洋溢着乐观精神，投资者们仍希望巴菲特能更清晰地阐述他退休之后伯克希尔哈撒韦将何去何从。

    经济形势正在改善；伯克希尔哈撒韦股价被低估；投资Facebook风险很大。这就是伯克希尔哈撒韦年度股东大会召开前夕，聚集在奥马哈的投资者的总体感受。

    每年都会有数万投资者涌入该市，聆听沃伦•巴菲特就其公司股票、经济形势及投资事业发表高见。通常巴菲特都会对美国经济作出颇为乐观的评价，但这并不总是与现实相符。事实上，巴菲特自己公司的股票过去三年里表现都跑输大市，而且包括昨日那份疲软的就业报告，越来越多迹象表明美国经济似乎又在走下坡路。更严重的是，巴菲特最近宣布已罹患一期前列腺癌，尽管他表示这不会危及生命，但该消息肯定会引发人们的担忧：现已81岁高龄的巴菲特退休之后，谁来掌管伯克希尔呢？尽管如此，今年伯克希尔股东大会的参加者对今后几年里经济形势的估计，似乎比往常更加乐观。

    上周五晚上，共同基金经理马里奥•盖伯里主持了一场晚餐会，为哥伦比亚大学——巴菲特曾在此读研——筹款，在晚餐会上演讲的投资者表示，他们相信包括伯克希尔哈撒韦在内的美国大公司的股票现在值得买入。哥伦比亚大学著名投资学教授、第一雄鹰基金（FirstEagle Funds）研究总监布鲁斯•格林沃德指出，由于利率极低，消费者的债务负担实际上减轻了一半，这应该会促进今年的经济发展。他还称，更重要的是事实证明欧洲经济比很多人想象中更有弹性。“尽管欧洲面临诸多问题，经济还是只下滑了0.5%，仍比两年前的形势要好。”格林沃德说。

    一些投资者还援引了其他良好迹象来佐证乐观经济预期，包括铁路运量增加及美国企业在整个衰退期间都保持着较高利润水平。盖伯里本人认为今后5个月存在许多不确定性，但他相信只要美国大选一结束，市场形势就会继续改善。不过，他认为即使到那时候世界经济仍将在相当长时间里保持低增速。“世界经济增长速度将是多少？”盖伯里说，“对60%的发达经济体来说，答案是最多2%或3%，你得投资于有定价能力的公司才行。”

    总的来说，包括冬青基金（Wintergreen Fund）经理戴维•温特斯和来自Gardner Russo & Gardner公司的汤姆•罗素在内，所有与会投资者都认为大盘股的机会更大，好过小盘股或科技股。格林沃德称，养老金基金和其他资产转为对冲基金的现象创造了机会。“对冲基金的成本结构迫使很多投资涌入中小市值的股票，”格林沃德说，“结果是一些规模巨大且安全的公司股价被低估了。”

    所有这些投资者都认为，伯克希尔哈撒韦就是这么一只被低估的股票。该公司股票周五收盘价不到12.2万美元，而温特斯认为其价值超过16万美元。他还称，像他这样的投资者出席伯克希尔年度股东大会，是为了听巴菲特再次担保一切都将顺利。由于巴菲特持有80家专注美国市场的公司的股票，包括伯灵顿北方铁路公司，他比大多数人都更了解美国经济。

    The economy is improving. Berkshire Hathaway's (BRKA) stock is undervalued. And Facebook is a crapshoot. That was the general feeling at a gathering of investors on the eve of Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting.

    Tens of thousands of investors pour into this city each year to hear Warren Buffett address his company's stock and the economy, and investing in general. What they get is typically an optimistic assessment of the U.S. economy, which doesn't always square with reality. Indeed, Buffett's own stock has underperformed the market for the past three years. And there are growing signs, including yesterday's weak jobs report, that the economy appears to be slumping again. What's more, Buffett recently revealed that he has Stage 1 Prostate Cancer. He says it's not life threatening. However it's sure to raise the issue of who might run Berkshire after Buffett, 81, steps down. Still, this year, the attendees of Berkshire's annual meeting seem more upbeat about the economy in the next few years than usual.

    Investors speaking at a dinner on Friday night that was hosted by mutual fund manager Mario Gabelli to benefit Columbia University, where Buffett went to graduate school, said they believed the shares of large U.S. companies, including Berkshire Hathaway, were a good bet right now. Bruce Greenwald, Columbia's reknowned investing professor and the Director of Research at FirstEagle Funds, says the fact that consumer debt burdens have effectively been cut in half by low interest rates should help propel the economy this year. What's more, he says Europe has proven much more resilient that many thought. "Despite all the problems Europe's economy is down half a percent, and it's up from where it was two years ago," says Greenwald.

    Other good signs for the economy that some investors cited were the fact that railroad traffic was up, and that U.S. corporate profits had remained strong during the recession. Gabelli, for his part, saw a lot uncertainty in the next five months. But once we get through the election in the U.S., he thought the market should continue to improve. Even then, Gabelli says it could be slow going for the world economy for some time. "What is the world economy going to grow," Gabelli says. "For 60% that makes up the development economies, the answer is 2% or 3% at best. You need to invest in companies with pricing power."

    Generally, all the investors, which also included David Winters of the Wintergreen Fund and Tom Russo of Gardner Russo & Gardner, thought there was more opportunity in large capitalization stocks, than smaller or technology companies. Greenwald said the shift of pension funds and other assets into hedge funds was creating an opportunity. "The hedge fund cost structure has pushed a lot of investment into small and medium cap stocks," said Greenwald. "The result is that there are a number of undervalued huge, safe companies."

    One of those stocks that all the investors thought was undervalued was Berkshire Hathaway. Winters said he thought Berkshire's shares, which headed into the weekend at just under $122,000, were worth $160,000. He said investors like himself come to Berkshire's annual meeting for reassurances from Buffett that things are going to be OK. Buffett, because he owns 80 U.S. focused company companies, including railroad Burlington Northern, has a better view into the economy than most people.