Facebook要多大才能让投资者有好回报

    Facebook定于本周IPO，令华尔街兴奋不已。但巨大的兴奋不一定能给投资者带来巨大的回报。不妨掏出计算器，让我们纯粹从数字角度，冷静地算算Facebook要达到怎样的业绩，才能让在一片赞誉声中买入IPO股票的投资者获得良好回报。

    如果Facebook的IPO定价在28-35美元指导区间的中点，它的初始市值将为860亿美元左右。这相当于Facebook 2011年净利润10亿美元的86倍。我们假设股东们希望年投资回报率为10%，看看七年后。如果Facebook要给出这样的回报率，需要实现怎样的净利润和营收？

    根据我们的估算，如果不派息（高速发展的科技公司通常都是这样），到2019年年中，Facebook的股价需要累计上涨95%。假定Facebook总股本每年至少增加1%，这也是合理的，主要是向员工发放的期权。“这是一个非常保守的估算，”咨询公司Shareholder Value Advisors的史蒂夫•欧拜恩表示。因此，随着已发行股本扩大7%，股价上涨95%（即每年涨10%），届时Facebook的市值将达到1800亿美元。

    很难预料Facebook 2019年的市盈率，但我们假定为20倍。这个比率已经很高，因为它意味着投资者期待未来一些年公司将延续高于平均的增速，即便是在7年的高速增长后。

    因此，Facebook将需要实现近90亿美元的净利润，才能让投资者获得漂亮的10%年回报——虽然还算不上亮丽。复合年增长率37%。光是2018年年中到2019年年中，Facebook就必须再增加25亿美元的利润。要达到我们的目标，还需要Facebook留存盈利再投资的回报率达到37%。这相当于美国大公司平均净资产回报率的三倍。

    然后，让我们把时间轴再向后延五年，假定10%的回报率继续。到那个时候，Facebook的市盈率应略回落，假定为18倍，因为它已成长为一个成熟的行业巨头。因此，在2023年， Facebook的市值将需要再增长66%至2,970亿美元。如果是18倍市盈率，它的利润将达到165亿美元。

    可供参考的是Facebook的市值将超过今天的微软（Microsoft）。另外需要指出的是，2011年只有9家财富500强公司的净利润达到或超过了150亿美元。

    如果Facebook保持2011年的销售利润率27%，到2023年它的销售额将需要达到610亿美元。预计到2023年全球广告营收将从目前的约4300亿美元增至7000多亿美元。因此， 十二年后，Facebook需要从神奇小子变身一个能占据全球广告市场约8%份额的公司，从谷歌（Google）、新闻集团（News Corp）等公司手中抢夺业务。

    会有这样的事情发生吗？当然。但像这样的简单估算，绝不会破坏华尔街欢庆Facebook IPO的兴致。

    译者：早稻米

    The Facebook IPO scheduled for this week is generating a rush of exhilaration on Wall Street. But big excitement doesn't necessarily translate into big money for investors. So let's pull out our calculators and take a sober, just-the-numbers look at what Facebook needs to achieve to enrich the fans who buy its shares after what is being billed at the debut of the decade.

    If Facebook is priced at the mid-point of the estimated $28 to $35 a share range, it will start with a market cap of around $86 billion. That's 86 times its 2011 earnings of $1 billion. So let's assume shareholders want 10% annual returns from their investment, then look out seven years from now. What earnings and revenues does Facebook need to produce those 10% returns?

    In our experiment, by mid-2019, Facebook must lift its price per share 95%, assuming it pays no dividends –– normally the case with fast-rising players in tech. It's also reasonable to assume that Facebook adds at least 1% to its share count each year, mainly by issuing stock options to employees. "That's an extremely conservative estimate," says Steve O'Byrne of consulting firm Shareholder Value Advisors. So with 7% more shares outstanding, and a stock price that grows by 95% (that's 10% a year), Facebook would reach a market cap of $180 billion.

    It's impossible to know what PE multiple Facebook will garner in 2019, but we'll assume it's 20. That figure is generous since it means investors are expecting more years of faster-than-average growth, even after seven years of frenzied expansion.

    Hence, Facebook would need earnings of almost $9 billion to hand investors nice -- but hardly spectacular -- 10% gains. That's a compound annual growth rate of 37%. From mid-2018 to mid-2019 alone, Facebook would have to generate an additional $2.5 billion in profits. It would also require extraordinary, 37% gains on each dollar of retained earnings it reinvests to reach our milestone. That's three times the average return on equity of America's large companies.

    Now let's extend our horizon another five years and forecast that the 10% returns keep coming. By then, Facebook's PE should fade a bit to, say, 18, reflecting its status as a maturing giant. So in 2023, Facebook's market cap would need to rise another 66% to $297 billion. Its profits would hit $16.5 billion at our 18 PE.

    For context, Facebook would be worth more than Microsoft (MSFT) is today. It's also interesting to note that only nine Fortune 500 companies earned $15 billion or more in 2011.

    If Facebook maintains its 2011 margin on sales of 27%, its sales would need to reach $61 billion by 2023. Global advertising revenues are projected to grow to from around $430 billion today to well over $700 billion by 2023. So Facebook would need to go from a glamor name to capturing something like 8% of all of the world's ad market in 12 years, grabbing business from the likes of Google (GOOG) and News Corp (NWS).

    Can it happen? Sure. But nothing spoils a Wall Street party like a sermon on the math.