世界顶尖天才商品交易员突然引退之谜

    阿诺德在Centaurus公司管理着一个松散的协会组织，其中大多数是男性交易员，这些人喜爱虚张声势，偶尔还会违反纪律。许多员工都是曾在安然共事的同事或竞争对手公司的员工。作为公司的掌舵者，他被尊为王中之王。

    甚至就连曾经调查过阿诺德在安然公司活动的政府监管人员也对他推崇有加。美国的能源监管部门商品期货交易委员会（the Commodity Futures Trading Commission，CFTC）曾在安然公司破产后调查阿诺德和其他交易员。然而，这个机构竟然在2009年拜访阿诺德，询问该委员会应该如何改进工作方式。七年前，阿诺德曾是CFTC的调查的目标，而七年后，他却成了不容置疑的权威，连CFTC都要向他征求意见，这恰恰证明了能源市场圈子小的特点。

    那么，阿诺德这样的天才交易员为什么选择急流勇退呢？这个决定与交易行业的竞争形势密不可分。的确，阿诺德热衷于竞争和取胜，但近年来对冲基金的回报率不断下降，开始迫使他重新考虑这场游戏的性质。阿诺德赖以名利双收的天然气市场如今已经今非昔比；另外，水力压裂法的出现使开采公司能够轻松地获得难以数计的天然气。在可预见的未来，天然气的供应将非常充裕。如此一来，天然气价格疯涨、引无数交易员竞折腰的局面将成为历史。它对美国来说是好消息，但是对阿诺德这些倚重天然气驱动公司利润引擎的对冲基金经理来说却并非福音。

    如果金融市场的确存在什么真相，这个真相或许其实是这样的：市场游戏难度增加时，交易员们就不愿意再玩了。

    但是，阿诺德绝不会就此销声匿迹。阿诺德是一家之长，这个小家还在添丁加口。但他已经开始热心慈善。2010年，他和妻子劳拉响应比尔•盖茨夫妇和沃伦•巴菲特的倡议签署财产捐赠声明，将捐出自己的大部分财产。

    译者：乔树静/汪皓

    At his fund, Arnold presided over a loose federation of mostly male traders known for their swashbuckling lifestyles and occasionally unruly behavior. Many of his hires were former colleagues from Enron or competing firms. In his role as head of the firm, he was revered as a king among kings. (See Arnold on Fortune's 40 under 40 list last year)

    Even the government regulators who once investigated his activities at Enron seem to hold him in high regard. In 2009, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the U.S. energy watchdog that once went after Arnold and other traders at Enron in the wake of the company's spectacular demise, called him to testify on how the agency might better do its job. It is truly a testament to the small-world nature of the energy market that a trader once targeted by the CFTC would, seven years later, be sought out for his opinion as not just an equal, but an undisputed authority.

    So why would a trader of Arnold's caliber ever retire? Well, it has a lot to do with that competitive streak. Since Arnold's passion is competing – and winning – recent years of diminished hedge fund returns have forced him to rethink the nature of the game. The natural gas market, his bread and butter, isn't what it used to be, and the advent of hydraulic fracturing has placed hundreds of trillions of cubic feet of gas within easy reach of drillers. With supply looking plentiful for the foreseeable future, gas is no longer prone to the kinds of gravity-defying price spikes that once drew traders to it. This is good news for America, but not so great for hedge fund managers, like Arnold, who relied heavily on gas to fire their profit engine.

    If there is one financial Truth, maybe it is that when markets are not longer easy to game, traders will no longer want to play.

    But don't bet you've heard the last of Arnold. The father of a growing family who signed the Bill and Melinda Gates and Warren Buffett giving pledge to donate a majority of his wealth with his wife, Laura, in 2010, has already taken a keen interest in philanthropy.