风险投资败走IPO的三大原因

    2. 盈利率问题。多数快速成长的公司早期并不盈利，而没有盈利，就无法计算市盈率。没有市盈率时，风投通常参考市销率。公众投资者也会这么做，而且有很多证据表明他们并不认为早期盈利企业更值钱。虽然如此，公众投资者最终还是希望看到盈利，特别的，他们愿意为长期盈利率扩大的公司付出高价。然而证明盈利率扩张是需要时间的，通常比风投积极参与公司的时间要长。Zynga和Groupon 都显示了某种形式的盈利能力，但盈利率扩张能力并没有得到验证，所以公众投资者不愿给公司开出高价。

    3. 商业模式之惑。风投支持的公司中最快速成长的那些通常都会有新的商业模式。Groupon的运营方式太新，以至于它试图创造一项全新的指标，来帮助投资者理解公司内部如何度量业绩。Zynga则是首家成功利用Facebook平台的大型公司。虽然创新模式帮助Zynga 和Groupon获得了巨大的增长率，他们却找不到可以用来指引公众投资者的类似或可比公司。如果没有好的参照物，即使是最令人兴奋的公司，公众投资者对其估值也无所适从。结果就是，早期上市公司的估值乘数可能大起大落，直至其商业模式被证明行之有效。

    当然，并不是所有对处于上市前阶段的公司的晚期风投都表现不佳。虽然对Zynga和Groupon 的最后几轮风险投资不如人意，仍然有几家获得风投支持的新上市公司给出了良好的回报。

    比如，虽然在未上市前并没有获得风险投资界的狂热吹捧，点评网站Yelp (YELP), 商务社交网站LinkedIn (LNKD) 和Splunk (SPLK)的后期风投都有上佳表现。因此，风投和其它投资者在参与上市前的高价投资轮次时，需要考虑什么样的公司会在华尔街大卖，而不仅仅是在沙岭路（硅谷的一条公路，以风险投资公司聚集闻名——编者注）大卖。

    格伦•所罗门是纪源资本（GGV Capital）的合伙人，纪源资本是扩张阶段的风险投资公司，在加州门洛帕克和上海设有办事处。 他在www.sandhillrdmeetswallst.com撰写博客

    2. Profit Margin Picture. Most high growth companies aren't profitable early on, and without earnings, there isn't a P/E ratio to measure. In the absence of a P/E, VCs tend to look at price to sales ratios. Public investors do this as well, and there is good evidence to suggest that public investors don't necessarily pay more for profitable companies early on. (See my previous post on profitable vs. unprofitable IPOs.) That said, eventually public investors want to see profits and, more specifically, they'll pay up for a company that can show profit margins expanding over time. Often it takes a while to prove that profit margins can expand, usually long after VCs are actively engaged with a company. Both Zynga and Groupon show certain forms of profitability, but margin expansion doesn't seem proven, so public investors have been less willing ascribe high prices to these companies.

    3. Proven versus Unproven Models. Often times, the fastest growing VC-backed companies operate with new models. Groupon's approach is so new that it tried to invent a metric to help investors understand how it gauges results internally. Zynga is the first large company to leverage the Facebook platform successfully. While their innovative models helped catapult Zynga and Groupon's growth rates, these companies don't have analogous or comparable companies they can point public investors toward. In the absence of good comparable companies, public investors often become uncertain how to value even the most exciting companies. As a result, valuation multiples can swing wildly in the early days of a public company's life until models become more proven.

    Not all late VC rounds in pre-IPO companies under-perform. While Zynga and Groupon haven't been strong performers for the investors in the last rounds of venture capital in those companies, there are several newly public venture-backed companies that have delivered for their VCs.

    For example, the last VC rounds in Yelp (YELP), LinkedIn (LNKD) and Splunk (SPLK), although less heralded by VCs during their times as private companies, have all performed very well. VCs and other investors in high priced pre-IPO rounds need to think more about what will sell on Wall Street, not just on Sand Hill Road.

    Glenn Solomon is a partner with GGV Capital, an expansion stage venture capital firm with offices in Menlo Park and Shanghai. He blogs at www.sandhillrdmeetswallst.com.