资深人士预言风险投资黄金时代即将到来

    展望未来，我们发现五股力量将合力加强风险资本生态体系：

    1. 颠覆: 社交/局域/移动/web 2.0是实现人类前所未见伟大动力，将带来颠覆和革新。

    2. 创业者: 投入到创业的热情空前高涨。

    3. 天使投资: 天使投资者的种子基金已经遍地开花，将继续成长。

    4. 风险资金供应减少。

    5. 退出机制丰富，成长道路宽广。

    1. 颠覆。移动、社交网络、云和“数码土著”一代正在改变一切。他们已经比个人电脑的浪潮来势更凶猛，并将带来更大变革。耐用品的销售和媒体（电影、书刊和音乐）已被彻底颠覆。本地商家现在已经感受到风暴将至。医疗保健和教育不相信会受到冲击，咱们等着瞧。数万亿美元的现存市值将被摧毁，而颠覆者将创造更大的价值。

    2. 创业者。我有四个儿子，其中一个明年将升入大学。他现在就已经想成为高科技的创业者。当年我们读大学的时候，那可不是主流选择。但是今天的楷模正在穿着连帽衫奔忙于上市路演，创业队伍中的学生军也不再是神话传说，而像Facebook这样的科技平台公司极大地降低了靠软件发家的生意门槛。

    3. 天使在飞翔。2010年，天使投资者向6.19万家公司投入201亿美元。当《就业法案》（JOBS Act）的大众融资条款在2013年1月生效时，我们相信公司的数目将急剧增长，达到数十万量级。大众融资法限定每家公司每年向大众融资不超过100万美元。这笔钱足够让公司生产原型产品，但要商业化或者上规模则远远不够。风投将会有巨大的机会带领其中最优秀的公司和创业者走出下一步。

    Looking forward, we see five converging forces that will strengthen the venture capital ecosystem:

    1. Disruption: Social/local/mobile/web 2.0 is the greatest engine for disruption and innovation man has yet seen

    2. Entrepreneurs: There has never been more energy for creating businesses

    3. Angels: Seed funding by angels has bloomed and will grow further

    4. Reduced Supply of venture capital

    5. Exits are way up, and the road is paved for growth

    1. Disruption. Mobile, social networks, the cloud, and the "digital native" generation are changing everything. They are already growing faster, and will be much bigger than the PC wave. Hard goods retailing and media (movies, books, and music) have already been uprooted by this tsunami. Local commerce feels the storm rising now. Healthcare and education don't believe it will hit them – just wait. Trillions of dollars of existing market value will be destroyed, and the disruptors will create even more value.

    2. Entrepreneurs. One of our sons is going to college next year and wants to be a technology entrepreneur. That was not a mainstream choice when we went to college. But today's role models are on IPO road shows dressed in hoodies, student-entrepreneurs have cred and technology platform companies like Facebook have dramatically lowered the hurdle for software-based businesses.

    3. Angels Take Flight. In 2010, angels invested $20.1 billion into 61,900 companies. When the crowdfunding provision of the JOBS Act goes live in January 2013, we think that number will grow dramatically – into the hundreds of thousands. The crowdfunding bill limits annual fundraising per company from the "crowd" to $1 million. That's enough money to prototype a company, but not enough to commercialize or scale it. There will be huge opportunity for VCs to carry the best companies and entrepreneurs forward.