资深人士预言风险投资黄金时代即将到来
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4. 风险投资供应减少。相对于慷慨的天使投资者，风险投资的来源在枯竭。过去5年中，无论是风投基金得到的承诺投资，还是活跃基金的数目都减少了一半（见上图）。2010年，仅1001家公司从风投基金得到初始融资。这意味6.19万家受到天使投资支持的公司中，仅有2% 可能会获得风险投资。而大众融资将进一步扩大处于前风投阶段的公司数量。早期风投将面对巨大的机会流，其中不乏高质量公司（比如，那些生产出原型并已在市场初试啼声的公司）。这对仍然活跃的早期风投公司是重大利好。 5. 更多更好的退出机制。《就业法案》的重大突破是所谓的“上市快通道”，它能为准备上市的小型公司减少费用和延迟，并吸引分析师人士小市值公司。随着像阿莱克斯和罗伯特森•斯蒂芬斯这样的新一代精品投行成长起来，服务于那些常常被“大到不能倒”的银行所忽略的小型创业公司，这些改变的积极效应将在未来五年逐一显现。 最后，时机看起来也支持风投全新的黄金时代即将到来的看法。你很难真正吃准风投市场的时机，因为需要很长时间进入和退出公司。但是基金投资者可以从前述的牢固基本面分析得到信心。Harbourvest创始人布鲁克斯•祖格和Accel创始人亚瑟•帕特森都观察到风投基金的表现有一个长周期，他们都认为未来五年风投将顺风顺水。在经历上世纪九十年代的繁荣和本世界开始十年的萧条之后，美国的风投行业刚刚度过一段整顿时期。现在是对风险投资另眼相看的时候了。 约翰•巴克斯和托德•希克森是新大西洋风投（New Atlantic Ventures）的合伙人，该公司在弗吉尼亚和马萨诸塞设有办事处。 |
4. Reduced Supply Of Venture Capital. In contrast to the bountiful angels, the sources of venture capital are drying up. Both the dollars committed to VC funds and the number of active funds has declined by half in the last five years (chart above). In 2010 1,001 companies received initial funding from VC funds. This means that only ~2% of the 61,900 angel funded companies are likely to receive institutional venture capital. And crowdfunding will expand the pool of pre-VC companies. Early-stage VCs will see a huge flow of opportunities, many of them high-quality (i.e., companies that have prototypes and meaningful market results when we meet them). That's a very good thing for the early stage VCs that remain active. 5. More and Better Exits. The big breakthrough with the JOBS act is the "IPO On-Ramp", which reduces cost and delay for smaller companies aiming to go public and makes analyst coverage of small-cap companies attractive. The benefit of these changes will emerge over the next five years, as a new generation of boutique investment banks, like Alex Brown and Robertson Stephens, grows up to serve smaller start-up companies that are largely ignored by the "too big to fail" banks. Finally, timing seems to be on the side of a new golden age of VC. You can't really time the venture market, because it takes too long to move in and out. But, fund investors can take confidence from the strong fundamentals noted above. Harbourvest founder Brooks Zug and Accel founder Arthur Patterson have both observed a long-term cycle in VC fund performance, and they both see the VC tide rising over the next five years. We're coming off a period of retrenchment in U.S. VC following the late '90s boom and the early '00s bust. Now is the time to take a new look at venture capital. John Backus and Todd Hixon are partners with New Atlantic Ventures, a VC firm with offices in Virginia and Massachusetts. |
