Facebook焦头烂额，LinkedIn风景独好

    上周，Facebook的投资者们愤怒不已，该公司的承销商也极为尴尬，而批评者们则幸灾乐祸，我不禁被这样一个问题所困扰：假如说这么多投资者都不看好Facebook 的首次公开募股，认为估价过高，他们为何仍然十分看好商务社交网站LinkedIn？

    同Facebook 一样，LinkedIn是一家社交媒体先锋，打造了稳定增长且盈利的业务。通过建立一个社区，让人们之间定期互动，两家公司成为了社交网站中的翘楚。Facebook与LinkedIn都利用自身用户的个人资料赚钱。两家公司都是作为技术界最热门新领域的代表进军股票市场。

    两家公司都选择在5月中旬上市：Facebook是2012年，正值希腊债务危机和欧元区危机，投资者信心普遍备受打击之际；而LinkedIn则是2011年，当时希腊及欧元区问题也正如火如荼，市场信心同样不足。不过Facebook目前股价相比其发行价已下跌16%，而LinkedIn当前股价比发行价足足上涨了130%。

    当然，LinkedIn在IPO后也饱受挫折。LinkedIn在上市首日，股价便上涨超过100%，达到122.70美元，但仅一月之后，其股价迅速下挫，最低探至60.14美元。本月初，LinkedIn股价又重新回到120.63美元。换句话说，Facebook投资者们也许能从中看到自己股票一年之后咸鱼翻身的情形。但话说回来，这也并非板上钉钉之事。Facebook认股权证的投资者们正双倍买入看跌期权，很多人都下注该公司股票到12月将跌破每股22美元。

    这种看跌情绪也可以理解，鉴于Facebook发行价定为每股38美元，即公司估值相当于其年营收的26倍，相当于其年净利润额的100倍以上（目前这两个比例已分别下降至21倍和74倍）。不过LinkedIn目前市值相当于其营收的17倍，与其近期净利润相比，比例则高达700倍之多。Facebook目前股价较其上周五（5月18日）的发行价已大幅下跌24%，而同期LinkedIn股价仅下滑1%。

    Facebook股价下滑的主要原因是自己在首次公开发行上犯了愚蠢错误——向热门投资者们通告了较疲弱的增长预期，而这些数据来自Facebook自己和为了挽回颜面的证券分析师们，然后内部人士又宣布待售股票数量增多，同时提高发行价格。至于华尔街为什么在Facebook首次公开发行前对其股票给出“卖出”评级的，目前还不得而知。

    上周五，在开盘后最初几个小时，LinkedIn股价并未大幅波动。不过，随着刚刚上市的Facebook股票上涨无力之势愈加明显，LinkedIn股价也开始闻风下跌。LinkedIn在收盘时跌幅达到了6%，而Facebook股价较其发行价几乎原地踏步。其它互联网公司股票也受到Facebook拖累：社交游戏公司Zynga下跌了14%，团购网站Groupon和在线音乐服务商Pandora均下跌7%。从本周四的收盘情况看，自Facebook上市交易以来，LinkedIn的股价下跌了约1%，同时Pandora和Groupon的股价也下跌了1%左右。

    这种情况或许表明，投资者们开始意识到，Facebook不会波及其它近期IPO的互联网公司——除了Zynga，因为其营收严重依赖于Facebook。但这并不能解释为什么这些人会重新转向LinkedIn，一个市盈率要比Facebook高出许多的社交网站。

    原因可能在于投资者们注意到了其它因素：其中之一是LinkedIn的未来增长率要高于Facebook，甚至在Facebook非正式地公布其较低的营收指导前，LinkedIn仍要超出一截。在截止3月21日的上个季度，Facebook营收为10.6亿美元，增长45%。LinkedIn的营收增长率是Facebook两倍以上，达到101%，数额为1.88亿美元。

    Amid the anger this week of Facebook investors, the embarrassment of the company's underwriters and the schadenfreude of its detractors, a question has been bugging me: If so many investors are skeptical of Facebook's (FB) overvalued IPO, then why are they still so positive on LinkedIn (LNKD)?

    Like Facebook, LinkedIn is a social-media pioneer that has built up a steadily growing and profitable business. Both have achieved what few social networks have by creating a community of people who regularly interact with each other. Both exploit the personal data of their users to make money. Both entered the stock market as proxies for one of the hottest new areas in technology.

    And both went public in mid-May: Facebook in 2012, while concerns about Greece and the EU were weighting down broader markets; and LinkedIn in 2011, when concerns about Greece and the EU were weighting down broader markets. But Facebook is trading around 16% below its offering price, while LinkedIn has gained 130% from its offering price.

    Of course, LinkedIn also sagged after its initial debut. After more than doubling on its first day to $122.70, the stock had drifted down as far as $60.14 a month later. Earlier this month, LinkedIn had rallied back to $120.63. On the one hand, that may give hope to Facebook investors for a similar rebound over the next year. On the other, it may not. Investors in Facebook warrants are buying twice as many puts as calls, with many betting the stock will be below $22 a share by December.

    Such bearishness is understandable, given that Facebook's offering price of $38 a share valued the company at 26 times revenue and more than 100 times profits (it's now down to 21 times revenue and 74 times earnings). But LinkedIn is trading at 17 times its revenue and about 700 times its recent earnings. And while Facebook's stock has dropped 24% from its initial trading price last Friday, LinkedIn is down only 1% over the same period.

    Much of Facebook's slide is due to the ham-fisted bumbling of its IPO – notifying favored investors of weaker growth forecasts from the company and face-saving securities analysts, then announcing more shares for sale by insiders while lifting the offering price. Just how Wall Street managed to slap a sell rating on Facebook shares before the IPO is a tale yet to be told.

    Last Friday, LinkedIn's stock didn't move much for the first couple of hours. But once it became clear that Facebook's newly listed shares were faltering, LinkedIn began to fall, closing the day down 6% while Facebook closed largely unchanged from its offering price. Other web stocks also fell on the Facebook effect: Zynga (ZNGA) was down 14%, Groupon (GRPN) and Pandora (P) were both down 7%. And as of Thursday's close, LinkedIn is down about 1% since Facebook started trading, as are Pandora and Groupon.

    That may suggest that investor disenchantment in Facebook hasn't spread to other recent web IPOs -- except Zynga, since its revenue relies heavily on Facebook's fortunes. But it doesn't explain why investors would return to LinkedIn, when its PE is so much higher than that of Facebook's.

    The reason may be that investors are looking at other metrics, ones that suggest more future growth than Facebook was promising even before its (unofficially) lower guidance. In the quarter ended March 21, Facebook's revenue rose 45% to $1.06 billion. LinkedIn's grew more than twice as fast: 101% to $188 million.