凯恩斯救不了欧洲败家子

    须知在理论上，只有当今年的赤字大于去年，凯恩斯“刺激”政策才会有效。保持庞大赤字不变或略降，不会提供公众期待的增长。因此，2012年“六个败家子”的支出必须要大大高于2011年的合计3700亿美元缺口。

    但连年的高额赤字早已让这些国家背上了沉重的债务。他们的平均债务/GDP比率如今达到了93%，高于2004年的65%。爱尔兰、意大利、葡萄牙和希腊都处于108%或更高。2012年，5000亿美元的赤字将把该比率再提高8个百分点以上。

    很难理解为什么各国首脑们认为他们的国家能承担更加庞大的赤字，背负更多的债务。市场已经开始拒绝他们——可以看到，德国和西班牙公债的收益率之差极大，后者已接近毁灭性的7%。

    “市场不会允许这些国家继续这样大规模借钱，”Carnegie Endowment的经济学家尤里•达杜什表示，“削减赤字是实现恢复增长的重要因素。这样的政府支出是不可持续的。”

    “刺激”和高赤字等于增长，这些话已成老生常谈，普遍为人们所接受。但事实可能并非如此，基于这类观点的政策可能也只是黄粱一梦，难以实现预期的效果。

    译者：早稻米

    It's important to realize that, in theory, Keynesian "stimulus" only works if the deficit this year is bigger than the one last year. Keeping a huge deficit constant, or shrinking it slightly, will not provide the jolt the growth crowd wants. Hence, spending by the Six Spenders for 2012 would have to far exceed the combined $370 billion shortfall for 2011.

    But the string of big deficits has already saddled those countries with heavy debt. Their average debt-to-GDP ratio is now 93%, versus 65% in 2004. Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Greece are all at 108% or more. A $500 billion deficit in 2012 would inflate that ratio by more than eight more percentage points.

    It's difficult to understand how the heads-of-state think that their nations can actually run even bigger deficits that will pile on even more debt. The markets are already turning against them -- witness the gigantic spread between rates on German and Spanish government bonds, with the latter approaching a disastrous 7%.

    "The markets will not allow these countries to continue borrowing on this scale," says Uri Dadush, an economist at the Carnegie Endowment. "Deficit reduction is an essential element to getting them to grow again. The size of their government sectors is proving unsustainable."

    It's become a widely accepted cliché that "stimulus" and big deficits equal growth. That's an illusion supporting policies that are pure delusion.