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“新欧盟”是欧洲最佳的修复方式

“新欧盟”是欧洲最佳的修复方式

Cyrus Sanati 2012-06-04
按下欧洲“重启”键的的时候到了——如果欧盟成员希望要保住共同货币,就得放弃各自的国家身份,接受一个欧洲身份。

    人们越来越担心欧债危机可能已让欧元染上了不治之症,不仅会摧垮这一共同货币,也会导致欧盟(European Union)的全面坍塌。但是,即便出现这样的情况,导致欧洲承受巨大的痛苦,它也可能正是医生开具的、治愈欧洲当前病症并使它免受未来危机冲击的苦口良药。

    欧盟的政治框架正在阻碍欧洲大陆采取必要的步骤来化解这场经济危机,这一点已变得日益清晰。按下重启这个按钮,欧洲可以从它过去的错误中汲取教训,最终创立一个更加稳定、融合的联盟。

    主权债务危机如黑云压顶般笼罩在欧洲身上已有近两年半了。起初只是希腊发行新债券遇到了点问题,慢慢蔓延到了爱尔兰、葡萄牙、西班牙和意大利。希腊至今仍是这场危机的中心,为了信守对欧盟的承诺,希腊付出了高昂的代价。自危机以来,希腊经济已经萎缩了近20%。受欧元高估值影响,希腊的出口和旅游依然缺乏竞争力,不断萎缩的经济根本难以负担庞大的公共和个人债务。

    合乎逻辑的结论或许是希腊退出欧元区,所有债务全部违约,没错吧?当然,在“希退”(Grexit,即“希腊退出欧元区”的媒体新词)期间,希腊会出现数年的经济动荡,但最终希腊将重新站稳脚跟。借助低估值货币,希腊将再次能够同邻国土耳其、突尼斯争夺游客,并将食品和其他粗加工产品出口到欧洲以外的地区。

    但是,德国、法国等欧元区主要成员国全都表示,它们希望希腊留在欧元区内。正在努力帮助希腊渡过财政难关的国际货币基金组织(IMF)也赞成让希腊留在欧元区内。甚至连希腊的极左翼党派——左翼联盟(Syriza)也支持希腊保留在欧盟和欧洲货币联盟(EMU)的成员地位,该政党可能会在下个月的议会选举中掌权,组建联合政府。而且,最重要的是,尽管希腊人民已经承受了所有这些困难,他们仍倾向于让希腊留在欧元区和欧盟之内。

    鉴于各方普遍支持将希腊留在欧元区内,人们或许会想,应该早就有切实可行的解决方案在很久以前就将这场危机化于无形了吧。但这场危机还是那样危险、那样具有破坏力,一如既往。因为这不只是希腊和它的小国经济,它关系到欧盟作为一个有效政治联盟的生存能力。

    There is growing fear that the European debt crisis may have given the euro an incurable disease that could not only bring down the common currency, but also lead to the total collapse of the European Union. Yet while Europe would certainly experience considerable pain if such a scenario were to occur, it may be just what the doctor ordered to solve Europe's current ills and inoculate it from future crises.

    It is becoming increasingly clear that the political framework of the EU is preventing the continent from taking the necessary steps for it to solve this economic crisis. By pressing the reset button, Europe can learn from its past mistakes and could eventually create a far more stable and integrated union.

    It has been nearly two-and-a-half years since the sovereign debt crisis moved over Europe like a heavy dark cloud. What had started out as simply a problem with Greece's ability to issue new debt slowly spread to Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy. Greece continues to be ground zero for the crisis where it has paid a high price for remaining loyal to the EU. Since the crisis began, the country has seen its economy contract by nearly 20%. The euro's strong value continues to make the country's exports and its tourism business uncompetitive while its public and personal debt load continues to be too big for its shrinking economy to ever handle.

    The logical conclusion would be for Greece to simply leave the eurozone and default on all its debts, right? Sure, there would be a few years of intense economic chaos in the country during Grexit (a name the media has so cleverly ascribed to a Greek exit from the euro), but Greece will eventually get back on its feet. With a weaker currency, Greece would once again be able to compete for tourists with neighboring Turkey and Tunisia and also be able to export food stuffs and other unfinished goods to places outside the EU.

    Yet all major countries in the eurozone, including Germany and France, say they want Greece to stay in. The International Monetary Fund, which is helping the Greeks sort through its finances, is also in favor of Greece remaining in the euro. Even the far left Syriza party in Greece, which could take power in a coalition government in next month's parliamentary elections, supports Greece's membership in both the EU and the EMU. And most importantly, the Greek people, despite all the hardship they have endured, are still in favor of Greece staying in both the euro and the EU.

    Given the widespread support for Greece remaining in the euro, one would think that a viable solution would have been found by now that would have put this crisis to bed ages ago. But the crisis continues to be as dangerous and disruptive as ever. That's because this is not about Greece and its tiny economy – it never has been. This is about the viability of the European Union as an effective political unit.

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