严管交易所基金刻不容缓

    ETF市场中也潜藏着其他邪恶的交易员。最近有一笔8亿美元的ETF交易：一家未表明身份的机构赎回了2,000万份SPDR巴克萊资本高收益债ETF（SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF）。据ETF Trends称，这位投资者没有选择变现，而是拿债券，“以货代款赎回”——由此该投资者绕过了公开市场，避开了流动性瓶颈以及大订单执行时不可避免地出现中小交易员搭便车赚些小钱的威胁。一位巴克莱分析师称，“这一做法进一步印证了现货市场流动性依然严峻的事实，一些不那么传统的获取现金流动性的方式已变得更有吸引力。”ETF成为新的第三市场。

    我们可以想到有多种方式，可以将这一交易用作操纵市场的工具。下单机构可以利用这笔交易推高自有头寸的价格，为流动性较差的头寸创造一些流动性，或者仅仅是通过卖空获取小额利润。

    由于摩根大通提议设立的ETF可能吸纳伦敦金属交易所约30%的铜——再加上中国数量不明的持有量——铜已经变成了钱，作为人们交易中所接受票据的抵押实物。美国人不是担心中国控制了太多美国国债吗？那么，太多的全球自然资源呢？太多的世界可耕地（中国在巴西和非洲各地已进行了众多农业投资）？我们应当抵御全球经济入侵，还是继续贱卖资产，把美国一点点卖掉？

    此案的政治影响值得关注。SEC联同CFTC对ETF做出的裁定，将改变整个ETF行业——当然，这也是个烫手山芋。ETF市场拥有超过1,000种投资工具，涉及资产远远超过1万亿美元，而且发行人都是金融业内赫赫有名的公司，包括花旗（Citigroup）、太平洋投资管理公司（PIMCO）、瑞银（UBS）、摩根大通、摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）和高盛（Goldman Sachs）。如果SEC做出不利裁定，当初监管机构批准这些基金销售的行为是否正当就会引发争议，这可能是朝着政府正式承认“推动大宗市场价格波动的是投机，而不是供需”迈出的第一步。没人指望一个级别不高的政府机构能挑战如此实力强大的行业。

    在这个大选年，现任总统奥巴马愿意放手一试吗？既要敲打华尔街，又想获得华尔街的支持，办得到吗？

    译者：早稻米

    Other sinister players lurk in the ETF markets. There was the recent $800 million ETF trade as an unidentified institution redeemed 20 million shares of SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF. Rather than cash out of the instrument, according to ETF Trends, the investor took the bonds, a "customized in-kind redemption" where the investor bypassed the open market, protecting against liquidity bottlenecks and the ever-present threat of smaller traders looking to pick off small profits while working the large execution. Said one Barclays analyst, "the maneuver adds to the already strong evidence that cash market liquidity remains challenged, as less traditional avenues for accessing cash liquidity have become more attractive." ETFs, the new Third Market.

    We can think of multiple ways in which this trade could have been used to manipulate the markets. The institution placing the ETF order could have used the trade to mark up prices in its own holdings, to create liquidity for its own illiquid positions, or simply to skim small profits on a short sale.

    With the potential for a drain of 30% of the LME's copper for the proposed ETF – plus China's unknown holdings – copper has become money, a physical good held as inaccessible collateral for bits of paper that people accept in trade. Is America worried that China controls too much of our Treasury debt? How about too much of the world's natural resources? How about too much of the world's arable land, with massive farming ventures already established in Brazil and across Africa? Will we push back against global economic encroachment, or will we continue the fire sale as America sells itself off piece by piece?

    The political fallout from this case is worth watching. A joint SEC-CFTC decision against the ETF would change the entire ETF industry – obviously a hot potato. The ETF market has over a thousand vehicles with well over a trillion dollars in assets, and issued by the biggest names in finance, including Citigroup (C), PIMCO, UBS (UBS), JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley (MS), and Goldman Sachs (GS). An adverse SEC decision would call into question the regulatory justification for marketing these funds and could be a first step towards an official government position that speculation, not supply and demand, drives price volatility in the commodity markets. One would not expect a lowly government agency to challenge such a powerful sector.

    In an election year, is President Obama willing to bet he can eat Wall Street's cake and still have it?