欧元不会倒的四大理由

    目前欧元的状况看来是每况愈下。随着西班牙银行危机加剧，6月17日希腊二次大选在即（这次大选可能直接影响到未来希腊是继续留在欧元区还是自立门户），欧元解体的可能性日增。

    怀疑论者抛出的观点不容忽视：曾成功预测此轮信贷危机的经济学家鲁里埃尔•罗比尼宣称，欧元区将在今年某个时候崩溃，希腊和葡萄牙将脱离欧元区。《黑天鹅效应》（The Black Swan）一书作者纳西姆•塔勒比则直言，欧元走到尽头“没什么大不了的”。

    其他很多华尔街人士也上调了对欧元区解体的预测概率。上个月，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的乔纳森•加纳告诉彭博社（Bloomberg）称，该公司已将欧元区解体概率从25%调高到了35%，解体速度也将加快至12-18个月，短于先前预测的3-5年。《华尔街日报》援引公共电视台德国电视二台（ZDF）上月末发布的民意调查结果称，在普遍被视为欧元救世主的德国，近半数人口认为欧元对德国的负面影响多于正面影响，高于2月份的43%。

    虽然关于欧元区解体的可能性说法林林总总，但欧元保持不倒的可能性也不是没有。下面是四大理由。

解体过于痛苦（即便对德国也是一样）

    德国是欧元区里唯一一个有足够经济能力，可以维持欧元不倒的国家。但过去三年，德国总理安吉拉•默克尔所做的只是让这些债务如山的国家不致于破产而已，为此还要求它们大幅缩减支出——批评人士认为，这样的策略事实上导致危机升级（而非缓解）。

    不难理解为何德国人不像外围国家那样将欧元区危机视为一大威胁。德国经济正在蓬勃发展。虽然欧债危机已近三年，但目前德国失业率处于20年来的最低水平，而且还在继续下降。但正如亿万富翁投资者乔治•索罗斯在意大利的一次长篇演讲中所指，德国对欧元区的需要不亚于欧元区对德国的需要——如果不是更多的话。

    欧元区使德国的出口产品能保持低价和竞争力，防止欧元区其他国家出现债务违约。这些债务的持有人很多都是德国的金融机构。因此，如果船沉了，船上所有人包括德国在内都会掉进水里。

    “欧元区可能不会解体，因为这不仅会重重打击外围国家，也会极大地冲击德国。”索罗斯表示。

    The state of the euro looks bleaker by the day. Amid a deepening banking crisis in Spain and ahead of a pivotal June 17 Greek election that could make or break the nation's ties with the euro zone, the idea of a euro break up has increasingly become a possibility.

    The usual suspects have weighed in: Economist Nouriel Roubini, credited for having foreseen the credit crunch, has said the euro zone would collapse sometime this year, with the departure of Greece and Portugal. Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan, has boldly said the end of the common currency "is not a big deal."

    And many others on Wall Street have raised chances of a breakup. Last month, Morgan Stanley's Jonathan Garner told Bloomberg the firm raised its likelihood to 35% from 25%, with the pace of a breakup accelerating over 12 to 18 months as opposed to the previously estimated three to five years. And now half of the population of Germany, which is widely viewed as the euro's savior, believe the common currency has done more bad than good for Germany, up from 43% in February, according to The Wall Street Journal, citing a poll released late last month by public broadcaster ZDF.

    Despite talk of a euro breakup, the euro will likely survive. Here are four reasons why.

It's too painful to breakup (even for Germany)

    Germany is the only euro-zone nation with enough economic pull to keep the euro together. But for the past three years, Chancellor Angela Merkel has done only the minimum needed to keep debt-troubled nations afloat while demanding huge spending cuts in return – a strategy critics say has irritated the crisis rather than ease it.

    It's easy to see why Germans don't see the euro zone crisis as big a threat as the peripheral countries do. Its economy is actually thriving. Even as Europe approaches the three-year mark of its debt crisis, German unemployment is at its lowest in 20 years and falling. However, Germany needs the euro zone as much (if not more) than the union needs Germany, as billionaire investor George Soros highlighted over the weekend during a lengthy speech in Italy.

    The euro zone keeps Germany's exports cheap and therefore competitive. What's more, it keeps other euro nations from defaulting on their debts. And much of those debts are owed to German financial institutions. So if the ship sinks, all on board, including Germany, will sink with it.

    "The likelihood is that the euro will survive because a breakup would be devastating not only for the periphery but also for Germany," Soros said.