欧元不会倒的四大理由

欧元区选民规避风险

    欧元区有很多富有的选民年岁渐大，不喜风险。因此，如果欧元崩溃当前，选民们或许宁可选择承受紧缩政策的痛苦，也不愿承担脱离欧元区可能带来的不确定性。

    “这已经在2009年以来的欧洲选举中得到验证”，彼得森国际经济研究所（Peterson Institute for International Economics）的研究员雅各布•科克加德表示。

    当然，希腊5月6日没有结果的大选是个例外，但这只是因为希腊正在经历独有的政治合法性危机。左翼联盟（Syriza）拒绝履行与几十亿欧元国际援助挂钩的缩减预算协议，该党派在5月大选中获得相当支持，显示选民们已心生犹豫，不再像过去那样不假思索地将选票投给传统政党。

    不过，科克加德表示，欧元区其他国家不存在这样的问题（意大利也没有这样的问题）。而且，希腊选民虽然现在依然举棋不定，但到6月17日大选时，他们或许会最终意识到他们需要接受紧缩政策。

    索罗斯在意大利演讲时指出：“我预计希腊公众可能很害怕被欧盟（European Union）开除，因此在大选中可能会让一个愿意遵守现有协议的政党联盟获得微弱多数。”他说：“但没有政府能够达到这些要求，因此希腊危机可能会在今秋达到顶峰。届时，德国经济也将开始走弱，到时候默克尔会发现更难说服德国公众承担起更多的欧洲责任。”

欧元是创新，需要不断完善

    或许，如果投资者能够接受这样一个现实，即欧盟是一项存在根本性缺陷的试验，需要花很多年的时间来完善，他们就不会那么紧张不安。起初，这一货币联盟帮助德国增强了出口竞争力，其他国家则获得了廉价信贷。不消说，当初推动欧元大获成功的因素也正是现在让其陷入麻烦的根源。

    但科克加德认为，欧元区的“机构创新“历史或许能让欧元躲过此劫。虽然创立了货币联盟，问题是它缺乏一个与之相伴的政治联盟。大多数政治科学家都认为欧元区根本就不该存在，但欧元区还是建立并存在了这么多年，这都是有赖于其“创新机构”的能力。未来它还将克服在旁人看来难以逾越的障碍。

欧洲央行可以处理好这场危机

    在沉重的债务压力下，很多人呼吁欧洲央行（European Central Bank）担起“最后贷款人”的角色。确实，如果赋予欧洲央行随意印钞的权力，就能缓解流通性压力，确保永远都有钱支付给国债持有人。

Euro area voters are risk averse

    Given that so many euro zone voters are rich and aging, they are highly risk averse. So when a euro crash is potentially imminent, voters will likely agree to the pains of austerity rather than risk the uncertainties of breaking away from the euro zone.

    "This has been proven in all elections in Europe since 2009," says Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

    To be sure, Greece's inconclusive May 6 election is an exception, but that's only because it is suffering from a unique political legitimacy crisis. The Syriza parties that favor renouncing budget-cutting agreements tied to billions of euros in international aid garnered modest support, making it difficult for voters to support the traditional parties as a safe pair of hands.

    Nevertheless, Kirkegaard says, no other euro zone member (not even Italy) has such problems. And while Greek voters seem uncertain today, they might eventually realize they need to agree to the austerity measures by its June 17 election.

    In his speech in Italy, Soros added: "I expect that the Greek public will be sufficiently frightened by the prospect of expulsion from the European Union that it will give a narrow majority of seats to a coalition that is ready to abide by the current agreement," he said. "But no government can meet the conditions so that the Greek crisis is liable to come to a climax in the fall. By that time the German economy will also be weakening so that Chancellor Merkel will find it even more difficult than today to persuade the German public to accept any additional European responsibilities."

The euro is innovative and a work in progress

    Perhaps investors would be less jittery if they accepted that the European Union is a fundamentally flawed experiment that could take many more years to get right. In the beginning, the monetary union helped Germany boost its competitiveness in exports, while other members took advantage of cheap credit. Needless to say, what drove the euro's successes is what has landed it in trouble today.

    But what will probably drive the euro's survival is its history of "institutional innovation," Kirkegaard says. Though a monetary union was created, the problem is that it lacks an accompanying political union. Most political scientists argue the euro area should not exist at all, but it does because it has the capacity to "innovate new institutions." In the coming years, it could overcome problems that others deem insurmountable.

The European Central Bank can handle the crisis

    Amid crippling debt, many have called on the European Central Bank to act as a "lender of last resort." Indeed, giving the ECB a license to print as much money as it pleases would ease a liquidity crunch and guarantee that cash would always be available to pay out bondholders of government debt.