不预则废，说的是欧洲吗?

    我一直喜欢读“伟大投资者”写的致投资者函和文章。在我看来，保璞集团（Baupost）的塞思•克拉曼就属于“伟大投资者”这一类。他在今年一季度的致投资者函中写道：“我们不担心错过可能的大反弹，如果这些反弹纯粹是由于资金流或政府行为；参与此类投机活动的风险简直太高了。”

    在某种程度上，克拉曼不惧短线弱于大盘。在近30年的投资生涯中，他的长期投资表现几乎可以睥睨任何投资者。

    不过，我想克拉曼等伟大的投资者之所以能有杰出的长期投资表现，投资流程是关键。我猜想在克拉曼取得辉煌业绩前，甚至可能在他入行的最初几年，他就已经深知“所有伟大的长期投资都始于计划”这句老生常谈。

    事实是伟大的投资者都有完善的投资流程。有时，投资流程告诉他们要大胆投资，有时要持币观望，结果是完善的资产配置计划。随着时间的推移，如果投资流程胜人一筹，回报也是出类拔萃。

    如果我要向基金配置资产，我要问基金经理的第一个问题是“你的投资流程是什么”，然后是“为什么这个投资流程将随着时间推移带来出色的投资结果”。无疑，在回顾它们的历史表现后，我可以确定它们是否真的拥有一个投资流程并在投资计划中相应执行。

    著名的西班牙画家帕布罗•毕加索对于计划是这么说的：“我们的目标只能通过计划这一途径来实现。我们必须坚信这一点，并采取有力行动。没有其他途径可以获得成功。”

    鉴于当前欧洲危机深重，引用一位知名欧洲艺术家的计划名言正是恰如其分。这不是对欧洲人发难，而是对缺乏长期计划的经年欧债危机开炮。更别提当欧元这一共同货币创建时，就缺乏一个长远的计划。

    近些天，我听很多交易员说，坊间的普遍看法是市场将继续动荡，直到希腊大选、二十国集团（G20）、美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）和欧盟峰会（EU Summit）之后。交易员们的计划似乎是稍安勿躁，等待决策者们定好计划。这样的打算可不错。

    I've always enjoyed reading the quarterly letters and writings of great investors. From my perspective, Baupost's Seth Klarman fits into the category of a great investor. In his first quarter letter to investors this year, he wrote: "We are comfortable missing out on potentially major rallies if they are based purely on money flows or government action; the risks of engaging in this sort of speculative activity are simply too high."

    On some level, Klarman has earned the right to underperform in the short run as his long run track record, almost 30 years, is superior to almost any investor in that time frame.

    That being said, I think what likely differentiates Klarman and many investors with superior long run track records is their process. My guess is that Klarman may have written the above quote even just a couple of years into his career before his track record was established.

    The fact is great investors have a process. Sometimes the process tells them to invest aggressively, sometimes it tells them to stay on the sidelines with large cash balances, but the outcome of the process is a plan to allocate capital. Over time, if the process is superior, the outcome will be positively differentiated returns.

    If I were allocating capital to funds, the first question I would ask any potential manager would be "What is your process?" That would be followed by "Why will this process produce superior results over time?" Undoubtedly after reviewing their historic results, I could determine whether they actually had a process and executed on their investment plan accordingly.

    The famed Spanish painter Pablo Picasso said this about having a plan: "Our goals can only be reached through the vehicle of a plan, in which we must fervently believe, and upon which we must vigorously act. There is no other route to success."

    Quoting a famed European artist about planning is somewhat appropriate given the current debacle in Europe. Now this isn't a shot at Europeans but rather a shot at the lack of an actual long term plan emerging to solve Europe's long run debt crisis. Not to mention, the lack of a long term plan when the common currency was established.

    I've heard from a number of traders in the last couple of days and the general consensus in that community seems to be that the market will remain choppy until after the Greek elections, the G20, the FOMC, and the EU Summit. Not to put words in their mouths, but the plan in the trading community seems to be to not do much until the central planners are done planning. I like that plan.