不预则废，说的是欧洲吗?

    在我们等待决策者们制定计划时，欧洲发布的经济数据继续恶化。新近发布的欧洲重要经济数据包括：

    • 德国4月份出口下降1.2%，是今年以来首度下降（弱于预期）；

    • 法兰西银行（Bank of France）将法国二季度GDP增速预期调低至-0.1%（弱于预期）；

    • 意大利4月份工业产值较上月缩减1.9%（弱于预期）；

    • 荷兰4月份工业产值较上月缩减2.7%（弱于预期）；

    • 希腊一季度GDP同比萎缩6.5%，弱于5月15日预测的下降6.2%。

    最令人震惊的数据可能是最后一个希腊数据。不是因为希腊经济影响巨大，而是希腊政府看来仍难掌握真实数据。我个人已基本接受这样一个观点：大多数政府都在编造数据，因此数据修正，无论是向上还是向下都 不值得大惊小怪。

    谈到政府数据，中国政府很快将发布一大批数据，包括消费者价格指数、工业产值、零售额和生产者价格指数。很多人的计划是如果中国真地进入降息周期，就买入大宗商品和风险资产。在下图中你可以看到为什么这不是一个好计划，至少从上次降息周期看。

    As we wait for the central planners to stop their planning, the economic data out of Europe continues to deteriorate. The key European economic data from the last 24 hours includes:

    • German exports declining in April by 1.2%, the first decline this year (worse than expected);

    • Bank of France cuts its French GDP forecast in Q2 to -0.1% (worse than expected);

    • Italian industrial output for April comes in weaker at -1.9% month-over-month (worse than expected);

    • Netherlands April industrial production comes in at -2.7% month-over-month (weaker than expected); and

    • Greek GDP contracted by 6.5% in Q1 from a year ago, versus the -6.2% projected decline on May 15th.

    The most startling data point is likely the last one. Not because the Greek economy matters all that much anymore, but rather because the Greek government continues to have a difficult time getting a handle on the actual data. Personally, I've basically accepted that most governments make up the numbers, so revisions, either up or down, are really of no great surprise.

    Speaking of government data, the Chinese government will be releasing a broad swath of data soon, including consumer price index, industrial production, retail sales, and producer price index. For many, the plan is to buy commodities and risk assets if a Chinese rate cutting cycle begins in earnest. In the chart below, you can see why this may not be such a good plan, at least according to the last cycle.

    具体来说，2008年9月16日是中国上次降息周期的开端。可能正如预料的那样，涵盖19种大宗商品的商品研究所指数（CRB index）六天内大涨9.5%。但到2009年3月2日，CRB 指数累计下跌46.4%。中国降息对有些投资者可能是万灵丹，但不适合做多大宗商品的投资者。（感谢我的同事Darius Dale提供上述分析）

    当然，如果中国开始大举降息，风险资产这次可能有不同表现。我的观点是抢跑央行，正如塞思•克拉曼所言是个危险的计划，如果这还算是一个真正的投资计划的话。

    Specifically, on September 16th, 2008, China cut rates for the first time in the cycle. As might be expected the 19-commodity CRB index ripped +9.5% in six days. By March 2, 2009, the CRB index had fallen 46.4% lower. Chinese rate cutting may have been a panacea for some, though not for those investors levered long of commodities. (Thanks to my colleague Darius Dale for putting this analysis together.)

    Certainly, risky assets may act differently this time around if China starts to cut interest rates aggressively. My point is simply that front running central planners, to Seth Klarman's point above, is a dangerous plan, if it is a true investment plan at all.