乌云笼罩意大利

    如果借贷利率继续上涨，意大利将需要欧洲央行（European Central Bank）提供特别帮助，才能避免债券市场的崩溃。欧洲央行自去年推出旨在弱化债券收益率涨势的债券购买计划以来，已累计购买意大利债券近2, 690亿欧元。它似乎不愿意永远地这样大量地买入意大利债券。而意大利有高额的融资需求，今年需要发行约1,200亿欧元的债券来填补预算赤字和支付现有债务利息。

    意大利曾经活跃的庞大债市如今需要让私人投资者确信，该国正在尽其所能解决债务问题，并保持相对偿付能力。意大利需要在其债券收益率达到危急关头前，迅速获得投资者的信任。首先，不妨从为意大利债券附加一项政府承诺，政府必须在偿付债券投资者后才能用于支付诸如教育或医疗保健费用等。

    意大利还应当更积极地出售国有资产。这不仅有助于偿还日益增长的债务，也能表明意大利政府仍在掌控全局。蒙蒂暗示，意大利政府正在考虑进行这样的出售，但对于将出售什么资产或何时出售的问题含糊其辞。关键是蒙蒂迅速启动大甩卖，别等到投资者都开始怀疑是否有这回事。这样做好处巨大，有些人预计约有5,700亿欧元的资产可能会被出售。这些钱不仅对意大利偿债大有帮助，还将大大推高其信用评级，有可能的话，还会降低借贷利率。

    市场也希望看到意大利开始认真对待经济增长问题。如果意大利公司的经营和结构方式不作显著调整，意大利经济就会继续蹒跚前行。放宽雇佣和解雇条例，是蒙蒂推动经济发展的第一步，但这应当延伸至所有行业，特别是政府岗位。还需要更多资金用于研发计划，特别是在高科技领域。意大利经济仍是十分老式的经济，汽车制造和纺织业是GDP顶梁柱。如果不采取措施建立适应21世纪的经济，意大利将继续面对黯淡的经济增长。

    但如果意大利不想最后四处求助，这些还只是所需实施内容的一部分。欧盟领导人必须要动真格的，通过提供真正的解决方案、解决共同货币面临的现实问题（比如，缺乏一个财政联盟）。只有组建财政和政治联盟，德国才可能同意与欧元区成员更多地分享其资产负债表和信用。创立欧元债券和将欧元区现有债务融合，将有助于市场重获平衡，不会出现边缘经济体负债累累、核心经济体欣欣向荣这样鲜明的反差。

    欧元区危机已进入倒计时。未来一些天至关重要，希腊大选最终结果将公布，而欧元区领导人将齐聚布鲁塞尔商讨构建一个更紧密的财政联盟。两件事任何一件传出坏消息，都将冲击意大利债券市场，大幅推高债券收益率至危机关头。债券投资者将细心留意任何乐观情绪、迅速重返欧洲市场。希望欧洲人最终能不负众望。

    译者：早稻米

    If borrowing rates continue to rise, Italy would need extraordinary help from the European Central Bank to keep its debt market from collapsing. The ECB has already bought up around 269 billion euros worth of Italian debt since launching its bond-buying program last year in an effort to blunt the rise in bond yields. It seems reluctant to just continue buying Italian paper in such large quantities in perpetuity. Italy has major funding needs and will need to issue around 120 billion more euros in debt this year to cover its budget shortfall and make its interest payments on existing debt.

    Italy's large and once active debt market needs private investors who believe that the country is doing all it can to dig itself out of debt while remaining relatively solvent. It needs to quickly regain investor trust before its bond yields hit critical levels. A good start would be to attach a guarantee on Italian debt that forces the government to pay off its bond investors before paying for anything else, like education or health care.

    Italy should also get more aggressive in selling off state-owned assets. This will not only help to pay down its growing debt load but it would also show that the government still runs the show. Monti hinted that the government was considering such a sell-off, but was vague as to what assets might be up for sale or when they would hit the block. It is critical that Monti starts his big garage sale quickly and before investors start to doubt if it will ever happen. The payoff could be huge, with some estimates of around 570 billion euros potentially up for sale. That money will go a long way in helping to pay down Italy's debt load, which will push its credit rating much higher and hopefully lower borrowing rates.

    The market also wants to see Italy getting serious on growth. The Italian economy will continue to putter along unless there are significant changes to the way companies are run and structured. Liberalizing hiring and firing laws was a good first step Monti helped push forward, but it should extend to all industries, especially government positions. There also needs to be a lot more money earmarked for research and development schemes, especially those in the high tech sector. Italy's economy is very old school with car manufacturing and textiles anchoring its GDP. Italy's economy will continue to experience anemic growth if steps aren't taken to build an economy for the 21st century.

    But this is just part of what needs to occur if Italy wants to avoid a trip to the bailout court. EU leaders need to finally get real when talking about solving the eurozone crisis by offering up real solutions that address the tangible problems facing the common currency, like the lack of a fiscal union. Creating a fiscal and political union is the only way Germany will agree to share more of its balance sheet and credit with its eurozone partners. The creation of Eurobonds and the pooling of the eurozone's existing debt will help to rebalance the market so that it isn't so lopsided with the periphery debt-ridden and the core humming along.

    The clock is now ticking on the eurozone crisis. The next few days will prove critical with the final results of the Greek election coming in while eurozone leaders meet in Brussels to discuss forming a closer fiscal union. A negative outcome from either event could spook the Italian debt markets, sending bond yields critically higher. Bond market investors will be looking for a hint of optimism so they can jump back in the European markets. Hopefully the Europeans can finally deliver.