法国，下一个定时炸弹

    法国社会党（Socialist Party）可能会把这个国家变成欧洲金融危机的下一个主要受害者。上周社会党在法国议会选举中获得压倒性胜利，让这个左翼政党事实上取得了对法国政府的全面掌控。由于权力不受任何制约，社会党可自由实施诸多计划，推动法国膨胀的债务负担进一步增长，被债券市场民团盯上。

    拥有压倒性多数支持和强大政治资本的社会党不应取消审慎改革措施和增加开支。恰恰相反，现在是推动欧元区建立更紧密的政治经济联盟的绝佳机会。这样的转变相比当前考虑的任何倒退政策，更能强化法国脆弱的经济。

    上周一，法国社会党总部内香槟四溅，庆贺该党获得法国议会577个席位中的314席。这一胜利让社会党取得了对法国国民议会（National Assembly）的全面掌控，也使得社会党党首和法国新任总统弗朗西斯•奥朗德（Francois Hollande）无需向仅获209席位的保守党人民运动联盟（UMP）做出让步即可通过法案。这一荡气回肠的胜利超出了预期，因为这意味着社会党甚至都无需同其他左翼政党构建一个联盟来掌控政府的立法部门，已经基本上获得了对法国的全面掌控。

    社会党没有浪费丝毫时间就展开了工作。法国议会已召开为期一个月的特别会议，希望启动“重建”法国经济的进程。目前法国的日子并不好过：预计2012年失业率10%，GDP零增长，预算赤字5%将把该国已处于高位的债务/GDP比率推高至90%以上。而且，更令人心惊的是，向欧元区政府和消费者提供数十亿欧元贷款的法国大银行的债务总额已达到2.7万亿欧元，几乎相当于法国的GDP。

    看看这些数字，就不奇怪为何法国被华尔街和伦敦金融城的很多人士视为一个滴答作响的定时炸弹。法国社会党希望通过实施很多刺激经济增长的举措，在这枚炸弹爆炸前悄无声息地拆除它。想法固然好，但看起来社会党准备剪断的那根引线是错误的。

    法国社会党的政治主张是基于平民主义，承诺将控制住该国不断加剧的债务负担，拉动经济增长。该党计划主要通过加税来实现这两项通常相互抵触的目标。奥朗德在4月份的选举中承诺，将把法国的最高税级升至75%，并堵住众多税务漏洞，他的竞选办公室称这可为法国财政带来100亿欧元收入，把5%的预算赤字降至更能管理的水平。另外，还有讨论拟制定实施3%的股息税、对银行和能源公司征收15%的特别税以及对所有金融交易征收小型交易税。此外，还有上调增值税的讨论，上调增值税会对消费支出产生负面影响。

    France's Socialist Party could be setting the country up to become the next major victim of the European financial crisis. A landslide victory for the party, called PS, in this week's parliamentary elections gives the leftist political party virtually total control of the French government. With no check to the PS's power, the party will be free to implement a number of programs that will increase the country's burgeoning debt load, making it a target for the bond market vigilantes.

    But instead of rolling back prudent reforms and spending more money, the PS, with its commanding majority and enormous political capital, has a golden opportunity to push for a much closer political and economic union for the eurozone. Such a change would go further to mending France's withered economy than any of the regressive policies currently under consideration.

    The champagne flowed at the PS headquarters on Monday morning as the party won 314 seats in the 577-seat French parliament. The victory gives the PS total control of the upper and lower houses of the National Assembly, which hands the head of the PS and the country's newly elected President, Francois Hollande, the power to push through laws without the need to compromise with the conservative UMP party, which picked up just 209 seats. The resounding victory was better than expected as it meant that the PS wouldn't even have to form a coalition with other leftist parties to control the legislative branch of government, essentially giving it total control of the country.

    The PS is wasting no time in getting down to work. The parliament has been called into an extraordinary session for a month to start the process of "rebuilding" the French economy. With 10% unemployment and zero GDP growth expected for 2012, things aren't pretty in the Hexagone these days. The country is facing a 5% budget deficit this year, which will increase the nation's already high debt to GDP ratio to well above 90%. And even scarier, the French mega banks, which have made billions of euros of loans to governments and consumers across the eurozone, are exposed to a mind-blowing $2.7 trillion in debt, which is pretty much equal to the nation's GDP.

    Looking at those numbers it is no wonder why France is viewed by many on Wall Street and the City of London as being a financial ticking time bomb. The PS wants to quietly disarm the bomb before it goes off through a number of initiatives, which they believe will stimulate economic growth. But while the PS has good intention, it looks like it is getting ready to snip the wrong wire.

    The PS campaigned on a populist platform where it promised to tame the country's rising debt load, while stimulating economic growth. The party plans on achieving these two normally conflicting goals primarily through tax hikes. Hollande campaigned in April on the promise of raising the nation's top tax bracket to 75% and closing a number of tax loopholes, which his office claims could bring in 10 billion euros to the national treasury, narrowing the 5% budget deficit to a more manageable level. There is also talk of instituting a 3% dividend tax, a 15% special tax on banks and energy companies, as well as a small transaction tax on all financial deals. In addition, there is also talk of increasing the nations VAT tax rate, which will have a negative impact on consumer spending.