法国，下一个定时炸弹

    在经济零增速之际加税，的确是个糟糕的主意。在这种情况下，奥朗德应当讨论的是给企业减税，而非加税。更糟的是社会党还打算取消上届政府制订实施的一些审慎的改革措施。首当其冲就是把法国全国退休年龄从62岁调回到60岁。这怎么看都是一个坏点子，因为这不仅会降低生产率，还会给法国添加数十亿欧元债务，吞噬加税可能带来的任何收入。

    社会党也探讨过采取几轮赤字支出的可能，据此，法国政府将出售大量债券为法国诸多大项目提供资金。希望这些大型基础设施项目能帮助法国启动停滞不前的经济。赤字支出固然能成功帮助一个国家走出衰退，但这种效果通常都是暂时的。若不对法国经济方向进行重大调整，在这些大项目完成后，法国注定将回到起点。

    抛开政治理念，所有这些加税和支出的必然结果都是暂时地（如果不是永久地）增加法国的债务负担。考虑到当前市场对于主权国家增加负债有多敏感，这样做就是一场非常危险的赌博。毕竟，法国刚刚失去完美的AAA信用评级，并被列入负面信用观察。如果法国不认真对待削减债务问题，信用评级必遭进一步下调，从而抬高借贷成本。很快，债券市场就会开始质疑法国政府的偿付能力，要求更高收益率来持有法国债券。这种负反馈循环最终将推高债券收益率到难以维持的高位，迫使法国要么债务违约，要么寻求代价高昂、颜面尽失的救助。

    但还有一丝希望显示社会党不会毁掉法国。上周，法国总理让-马克•艾罗宣布，将把政府的政策议程推迟到月底非常重要的欧元区会议后。月底的欧元区会议将探讨银行条例改革、创建国家级银行监管机构、合并各国债务、发行共同债务工具，而且更重要的是这是朝着建立更紧密的财政政治联盟迈出的第一步。

    这是法国真正成就历史的机会。与其他欧元区成员国不同，法国有一个可以用一个声音说话的政府。无论法国在这个会议上支持什么都掷地有声，因为它无需与任何反对党派进行商讨或投票。

    Increasing taxes at a time when there is zero economic growth is truly a bad idea. If anything, Hollande should be talking about lowering taxes on businesses and the like, not raising them. To make matters worse, the PS wants to roll back some prudent reforms that were instituted by the previous government. At the top of that list is the move to lower the national retirement age from 62 back to 60. This is an all-around bad idea as it not only cuts productivity, but also tacks billions of euros on to the national debt, wiping out any potential gains expected through the tax hikes.

    The PS has also talked about engaging in several rounds of deficit spending, whereby the government would sell a large amount of debt to fund a number of grand projects across France. The hope is that these large infrastructure projects will help jumpstart the nation's moribund economy. But while deficit spending can be successful in helping to pull a nation out of recession, the effects are usually temporary. Without a major change in the direction of the economy, France is doomed to fall back right where it started after all the grand projects are complete.

    Political philosophies aside, the inescapable conclusion from all of this taxing and spending is a temporary, if not permanent, increase in the nation's debt load. This is a very dangerous gamble for France given how sensitive the market has become to countries tacking on more debt. After all, France just recently lost its coveted triple-A credit rating and is on a negative credit watch by the rating agencies. If it looks like the country is not being serious about slashing its debt load, then its credit rating will fall even further, which will kick up borrowing costs. Soon the bond market will begin to question the solvency of the French government and will demand a higher yield to hold French debt. This negative feedback loop will ultimately send bond yields to an unsustainably high level, forcing France to either default on its debt or seek a crippling and humiliating bailout.

    But there is a glimmer of hope that the PS will not take France down. France's Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault announced this week that he would be delaying the government's policy agenda until after a critical eurozone conference scheduled for the end of this month. At the conference, there will be talk about reforming bank rules, creating a national bank regulator, pooling national debts, issuing a common debt instrument and, most importantly, taking the first steps to a closer fiscal and political union.

    It is here where France has the chance to truly make its mark on history. Unlike the rest of the eurozone member states, France has a government that can truly speak with one voice. Whatever France supports at the conference will remain as such as there would be no need to discuss the situation or vote on anything with opposition groups.