担心意大利的14个理由

    劳动力成本效率低下——导致意大利经济增速落后的一个主要原因是国内生产率停滞不前，正如较高的单位劳动力成本所示。工资虽然出现下降，但还没有出现同比下降。

    工业生产正在放缓，表现落后。欧洲委员会（European Commission）最近的一份意大利评估报告指出，生产停滞是意大利采用欧元以来丧失成本竞争力的主要因素。

    出口增速放缓——积极的一面是2011年初以来，意大利的净进口额逐渐下降。但出口增速也在放缓，因此反映到总量数据上益处有限。意大利的出口高度集中于纺织、服装、金属和矿物，但由于意大利公司的规模相对较小，过去十年意大利对欧盟主要贸易伙伴国的出口面临的竞争加剧。另外，它对非欧盟国家（特别是东亚）的出口份额上升，尚未充分体现益处。[主要出口市场：德国=13.1%；法国=11.6%；西班牙=5.3%]

    新车登记量——这是我们关注的另一项指标。毫无意外，该数据也低于欧盟国家的平均水平。

    储蓄率下降——意大利家庭的储蓄率已从2002年年中17.8%的高点降至2011年3季度的11.6%。下图呈现了意大利人在经济上行期和下行期的储蓄率变动趋势。过去三年储蓄率的下降反映了偿债以及意大利人维持过去支出水平的需求。

    Labor Cost Inefficiencies- A major factor behind Italy's slower growth profile is stagnation in its productivity, witnessed by higher unit labor casts, while wages, despite declines, have yet to turn negative.

    Industrial Productionis slowing and underperforming. A recent European Commission paper reviewing Italy noted that stagnation in production is the key factor behind Italy's loss of cost competitiveness since the euro adoption.

    Export growth slowing– On a positive note, since early 2011 Italy has become less and less of a net importer. However, export growth has also slowed, providing less of a benefit to the top line. Italy has high specialization in textiles, clothing, metal, and minerals, but due to the relatively small size of Italian firms, Italian exports to its main EU trading partners have found increased competition over the last decade. Further, its increased share in non-EU countries (particularly Eastern Asia) has yet to reap full benefit. [Main export partners: Germany = 13.1%; France = 11.6%; Spain = 5.3%]

    New car registrations- Yet another metric we follow. Here again, no surprise, underperformance vs the EU average.

    Smashed Piggy Banks- The Italian household savings rate moved from a high of 17.8% in mid 2002 down to 11.6% as of Q3 2011. The chart shows that Italians leveraged their savings in the upturn and in the downturn. The tapping of savings in the last three years demonstrates to pay off debt and the resilience of the Italian consumer to maintain previous spending levels.