投资选股首选消费品牌

    共同管理着规模达50亿美元的Tweedy Browne Global Value基金的威尔•布朗表示，这只是买入品牌公司股票的一个额外好处。2000年以来Global Value的年均回报率为6.3%（摩根士丹利国际资本欧澳远东指数同期下跌1.2%），去年获选晨星（Morningstar）年度国际股票基金。Tweedy持有雀巢、Coca-Cola Femsa (可口可乐位于墨西哥和南美的瓶装厂)和喜力（Heineken）等股，不是因为布朗和他的联席经理们希望抢占人口增长先机，而是因为这些公司在全球无数市场的竞争中总是处于领先地位。“我们寻找那些需求可持续、可预测的公司，”布朗表示，“很多情况下，这恰恰就是品牌公司。”Tweedy认为，强生（Johnson & Johnson）拥有邦迪（Band-Aids）、泰诺（Tylenol）等医药品牌，目前尤具潜力。过去十年，强生的每股收益年增幅超过10%，市盈率已从1999年的32倍降至今天的12.5倍。Tweedy相信，在低估值和3.5%的股息收益率之间，未来十年强生有望实现每年两位数的回报率。“他们存在问题——过去几年有些产品召回，”联席经理鲍勃•瓦克弗表示，“但总的来说，几十年来这家公司管理良好，我们不信就这样结束了。”

    2000年代初，戴维•温特斯向传奇价值投资者迈克尔•普莱斯学习，向公司管理层要回报率，被誉为股东维权家和不良投资专家。但金融危机以来，温特斯已基本放弃了高压策略，只买入股票——特别是那些口碑好的消费品牌，他称之为今天最便宜的一些股票。温特斯17亿美元的Wintergreen Fund自2005年成立以来年均回报率6.8%，同期标准普尔指数为4.9%。温特斯总是寻找具有三类特质的公司——（跑赢通胀的）定价力、业务向好和管理出色。多年来，他持股雀巢，这家瑞士食品巨头在全球销售几百种品牌的产品。该公司早已深入发展中市场，2010年发展中市场的销售额占比达36%，预计到2020年将增至45%。最近雀巢估值更便宜了。在今年早间以120亿美元收购辉瑞（Pfizer）的婴儿营养业务后，雀巢股价下跌5%。但别担心，温特斯说，“这为他们做好了长远的准备。”谈到品牌公司的股票，华尔街的近忧只有让长期持有者受益——并提供合适的买入点。

    本文选自2012年7月12日的《财富》杂志。

    编者注：我们在文中提到雀巢品牌包括Cheerios脆谷乐和哈根达斯冰淇淋。事实上，这两个品牌的持有人都是通用磨坊（General Mills）。雀巢通过与通用磨坊的合资企业在美国以外地区销售Cheerios，并根据通用磨坊授权，在美国和加拿大销售哈根达斯冰淇淋。

    译者：早稻米

    That's just a bonus for buying brands, says Will Browne, who co-manages the $5 billion fund. Global Value has returned 6.3% per year since 2000 (vs. -1.2% for Morgan Stanley's Europe Australasia Far East index), and last year Morningstar named it international stock fund of the year. Tweedy owns shares of Nestlé, Coca-Cola Femsa (KOF) (the company's bottler in Mexico and South America), and Heineken not because Browne and his co-managers were running to get in front of a population boom, but because the companies always had a leg up on competition in countless markets across the globe. "We're looking for businesses that have sustainable, predictable demand characteristics,'" says Browne. "In many cases, that happens to be brands." Tweedy thinks Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), with its roster of health care staples like Band-Aids and Tylenol, offers particular potential right now. J&J grew earnings per share by more than 10% annually over the past decade while its P/E collapsed from 32 in 1999 to 12.5 today. Tweedy believes that between its low valuation and 3.5% dividend yield, J&J is priced to deliver double-digit annual returns over the next decade. "They've had issues -- some product recalls over the last several years," admits co-manager Bob Wyckoff. "But generally the company has been well managed over decades, and we're not convinced that's not going to continue."

    In the early 2000s, David Winters, who learned at the knee of the legendary (and ferocious) value investor Michael Price, fought company managements to generate returns, earning a reputation as a shareholder activist and a master of distressed investments. But since the financial crisis Winters has mostly dropped the pressure tactics and just bought stocks -- especially the well-regarded consumer brands that he calls some of the cheapest equities available today. Winters' $1.7 billion Wintergreen Fund (WGRNX) has returned 6.8% a year since its founding in 2005, compared with 4.9% for the S&P. Winters has always hunted for companies with three traits: pricing power (to beat inflation), an improving business, and good management. For years that's meant a stake in Nestlé, the Swiss food giant with hundreds of brands on sale across the globe. The company's already deep reach in developing markets, which represented 36% of sales in 2010, is expected to rise to 45% by 2020. Nestlé recently got cheaper. After it acquired Pfizer's (PFE) infant nutrition division earlier this year for $12 billion, shares dropped 5%. But don't worry, says Winters: "It positions them for forever." When it comes to brand stocks, Wall Street's short-term worries will only benefit long-term holders -- and provide entry points for buyers.

    This story is from the July 12, 2012 issue of Fortune.

    Editor's note: We wrote that Nestlé's brands include Cheerios and Haagen-Dazs ice cream. In fact, Nestlé sells Cheerios outside the U.S. as part of a joint venture with General Mills, but General Mills owns the brand. In the case of Haagen-Dazs, Nestle sells the ice cream in the U.S. and Canada but licenses the brand from General Mills.