法国新政可能自毁长城

    法国政府的新预算和议程可能会让风雨飘摇的法国经济再添动荡，引发恶性循环，最终导致法国银行在华尔街四面楚歌，欧元区从此分崩离析。虽然新预算案也有可圈可点之处，但其中仍然存在太多的举措可能将法国推入更深的经济深渊。只要法国仍然希望平衡预算，继续往前走，它就必须要对臃肿的官僚机构以及过于优厚的医疗和养老制度动点真格的，但这一切说起来容易做起来难。

    不管怎样，社会党（Socialist Party）领导的法国新政府掌握着政治资本和资源，能够迅速有效地达成目标。但如果政党意识形态超越理性，法国可能还是会逐步陷入与欧元区邻国一样的境地：最终也需要应对高得离谱的贷款利率和疲弱乏力的经济。

    上周三，法国新任总理让-马克•埃罗公布了其所在的社会党为应对法国经济顽疾提出的方案的细节。由于社会党目前执掌法国政府的执政与立法两大机构，不管埃罗提交什么样的方案，事实上都很有可能获得通过。埃罗上任以来与法国新任总统弗朗西斯•奥朗德密切合作，已经签署了很多具有争议的措施，希望藉此增加法国政府收入，填补庞大的预算缺口。

    预算赤字在拥有17个成员国的欧元区内并不受欢迎，因为任何一个国家的负债都可能会影响到所有成员国共同货币，也就是欧元的价值。因此，欧元区规定成员国的年预算赤字最多只能占到年收入的3%左右。法国在执行这项规定方面一直有困难，它从上世纪70年代以来一直保持着高额预算赤字。

    新政府下令对法国经济进行独立调查，上周一公布的调查结果让市场大吃一惊，因为法国预算赤字/GDP比例将达到5.2%左右，大大高于先前的预期。新一届政府宣布缩减上届保守派政府批准的、诸多不得人心的紧缩措施，此举将导致预算缺口进一步扩大。另外，这届政府终于开始直面法国经济的现实，修正过于乐观的经济增长预期，从而也导致预算赤字攀升。法国政府现预计2012年法国经济将增长0.3%，低于此前乐观的0.7%。他们还将2013年的增长预期从1.75%调低到了1.2%。

    法国社会党在竞选期间曾宣称，到2017年要将法国预算赤字降到零。要实现这一愿景，2012年和2103年的预算赤字/GDP比率分别需要下降到4.5%和3%。如今随着一系列数据的修正，要实现这些目标意味着2012年法国政府在增收或减支方面需要比原本预计的再加码60-100亿欧元，2013年更是要增加多达330亿欧元。

    为了填补预算缺口，法国政府开始着眼于增收，实施了很多一次性及永久性的加税措施。加税主要针对投资者、大公司和富人。修订后的预算案中，法国政府计划2012年增加税收72亿欧元。巨额加税涉及很多渠道，其中有些计划颇有争议，比如，将法国富人的税率提高到令人咋舌的75%。根据法国政府的定义，年收入超过100万欧元的即为富人。

    The French government's new budget and agenda could destabilize the nation's already shaky economy, setting the stage for a vicious chain of events that could end up pummeling its weak banks on Wall Street, while shattering the eurozone for good. While some elements of the budget are laudable, there are still too many that risk pushing France into a deeper economic sleep. Hard reforms are needed in the country's bloated bureaucracy and overly generous health and pension schemes if it ever hopes to balance its budget and move forward, but that is much easier said than done.

    Nevertheless, France's new government, led by the Socialist Party, has the political capital and connections to get things done in a speedy and positive manner. But as long as party ideology trumps reason, France could eventually find itself in the same boat as its fellow eurozone counterparts, struggling to cope with impossibly high borrowing rates and anemic economic growth.

    Jean-Marc Ayrault, France's new Prime Minister, on Wednesday, released the specifics of his party's plan to lift France out of its economic malaise. With the Socialist Party now in power of both the executive and legislative branches of the French government, whatever Mr. Ayrault wants will probably become law. Working in close conjunction with the nation's new President, Francois Hollande, Mr. Ayrault has endorsed a number of controversial measures aimed at raising revenue to plug the massive hole in the country's budget.

    Running a budget deficit is frowned upon in the 17-member eurozone as one nation's debts can impact the value of the common currency for all members. As such, countries in the eurozone are only allowed to have an annual budget shortfall equal to around 3% of their yearly income. France has had a hard time complying with the rule, running large budget deficits since the 1970s.

    On Monday, an independent audit of the French economy, ordered by the new government, spooked the markets as it showed that France was on course to run a budget deficit equivalent to around 5.2% of its output, up sharply from earlier estimates. The budget gap grew after the new government announced plans to roll back a number unpopular austerity measures passed by the former conservative government. The deficit also expanded as the government finally got real about its economic situation, forcing it to adjust its overoptimistic economic growth forecasts. The government now projects the French economy will grow at 0.3% in 2012, down from the rosier 0.7%. They also lowered their 2013 forecast, projecting a 1.2% growth, down from 1.75%.

    The Socialist Party ran on a platform that envisioned lowering France's budget deficit to zero by 2017. To do that, it would need to achieve a budget deficit equivalent of 4.5% of GDP in 2012 and 3% in 2013. Achieving those targets now with the revised data means that the government will need to cut spending or raise revenue in 2012 by an additional 6 billion to 10 billion euros than what they had originally anticipated. The gap is then expected to explode to as much as 33 billion euros in 2013.

    To close the chasm in the budget, the government is focusing on the revenue side of the equation by imposing a number of one-time and permanent tax hikes. The new taxes will focus mainly on investors, large businesses and the wealthy. In its revised budget, the government is aiming to raise an additional 7.2 billion euros in taxes for 2012. This massive tax hike comes through a number of sources, including controversial plans to raise the national tax rate for the wealthy French citizens, which according to the French government is anyone pulling over 1 million euros a year, to an astounding 75%.