法国新政可能自毁长城

    法国政府预计新的富人税将为国库增加23亿欧元税收收入。当然，前提是“富有的”法国人和企业不会大举逃离法国，前往税收制度更友好的国家。根据欧盟（European Union）公民自由迁移法案，人们轻轻松松就可以收拾行囊，前往邻国定居，藉此避免本国的高税率。目前还不清楚有多少法国人会想办法回避这项新税收政策，但上个月英国首相戴维•卡梅伦声称，将“铺上红地毯”欢迎那些为逃避加税而来到英国的法国企业，这番表态还是令法国政府暴跳如雷。

    虽然高达75%的富人税令舆论哗然，但其实它至多也只能填补今年预算缺口的1/4。因此，法国政府又瞄上了投资者，主张对公司派息征收3%的税，这一项预计将带来3亿欧元税收。另一项计划是将金融交易税税率从0.1%提高到0.2%，此举预计将产生3.50 亿欧元税收收入。

    这两项税将令法国金融企业承受压力，因为它们将打压投资、交易、经纪和撮合交易等活动的热情。投资者将想方设法避免缴税，很多人可能会选择放弃与法国的注册公司进行交易。而且，法国跨国公司在决定是否将海外利润汇回国内时也会更加犹豫，担心法国政府会拿走其中的大部分。

    提案中缺失的是大举削减开支的举措，因为大举削减开支与社会党“促增长”/“反紧缩”的主题不搭调。但是如果他们打算填上2013年330亿欧元的缺口，最终可能还是得缩减开支。继续减税的空间有限，再减就会钳制法国业已疲弱的经济增长。上上周在布鲁塞尔会议中，法国敦促欧元区邻国批准了一项1,200亿欧元的经济刺激一揽子计划，希望藉此提振整个欧元区的经济。想法固然不错，但它需要时间，不会取得立竿见影的效果。在欧洲，大型项目的顺利启动可能需要几年，甚至几十年的时间。而且，1,200亿欧元仅及欧元区GDP总量的1/10，分散到几年的时间跨度里，刺激力度也不算大。况且，就算法国能分到一杯羹，到底能拿到多少也还值得怀疑，因为这些钱是被指定用于欧元区最孱弱的国家，而不是像法国这样一般被视为“核心”的国家。

    毫无疑问，法国明年需要采取一些真正的紧缩措施。但如果要达到欧元区预算赤字上限要求，法国所需的缩减开支幅度很可能会对经济增长构成负面影响，进一步加深法国的痛苦。很快，法国就会看起来更像意大利：债台高筑，增长疲弱。

    此外，法国可能还需要应对与西班牙一样的银行业危机，即便它不打算支持跛行的金融业。法国社会党与法国兴业银行（Société Générale）、法国巴黎银行（BNP Paribas）等银行巨头关系紧张。除了对银行加税达5亿欧元，现在似乎还有分拆银行的说法。上周二，法国总理埃罗在法国国民议会（National Assembly）发表预算案演讲时称，他赞成将银行的贷款业务从更具“投机性”的交易业务中分离出来。拆分具体如何进行，目前仍未可知。从严，可能会强制商业银行剥离全部投行业务——法国版的《格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案》（Glass-Steagall）。从宽，可能只要求分拆那些过度投机的业务，类似于《沃克尔法则》（Volcker rule）。

    The government projects its new wealth tax will bring in an additional $2.3 billion to the nation's coffers. That is, of course, assuming that many "wealthy" Frenchman and businesses simply won't flee France to a more friendly tax jurisdiction. The European Union's law of free movement of peoples makes it easy to pack up and establish residency in a neighboring country to avoid higher taxation in their own country. It is unclear how many of Frenchmen will make an effort to avoid the new tax, but the French government was livid last month when David Cameron, the United Kingdom's Prime Minister, said he would, "roll out the red carpet," for French businesses seeking to essentially dodge the tax hike.

    But for all the commotion over the 75% tax rate, it will only, at best, close a quarter of the budget gap for this year. So the government is now targeting investors, pushing for a 3% tax on company dividends, which is projected to bring in an estimated 300 million euros. There is also a plan to increase the financial transaction tax from 0.1%. to 0.2%, which will bring in an estimated 350 million euros.

    Both taxes will weigh heavy on French financial companies as it will discourage investment, trading, brokering and deal making activities. Investors will be looking for ways to avoid the tax, so many might choose to do business with a firm that is not domiciled in France. Furthermore, French multinationals will now be more hesitant to repatriate their earning back to France amid fear the government will snatch up most of it.

    Absent from the proposals are any major cuts in spending, as that would not jive with the Socialist Party's "pro-growth" versus "anti-austerity" theme. But they will eventually need to slash spending in a significant way if they are to close the 33 billion euro shortfall projected for 2013. There isn't much taxing left they can do without severely hampering the nation's already anemic economic growth. The French were able to get its eurozone partners to agree to a 120 billion euro economic stimulus package at last week's conference in Brussels to help jumpstart economies across the eurozone. While that is a good idea, its impact won't be felt for a while, as it takes time it takes years, even decades for a big project to get off the ground in Europe. Furthermore, 120 billion euros spread out over several years isn't that much stimulus considering that it is around a tenth of the eurozone's total combined GDP. And it is doubtful France will see much, if any, of that cash as it is earmarked for the weakest eurozone members, not for a supposedly "core" member like France.

    There is no doubt that France will be in need of some serious austerity in the next year. But spending cuts of the size France needs to move into compliance with eurozone debt caps will most likely have a negative impact on its economic growth, further exacerbating the nation's pain. Soon, France will start to look more like Italy with its high debt and weak economic output.

    But France may also have to deal with a Spanish-like banking crisis, as well, if does not support its crippled financial sector. The Socialist Party has a strained relationship with France's Megabanks like Société Générale and BNP Paribas. In addition to slapping the banks with a higher tax bill to the tune of 500 million euros, there now seems to be discussion around splitting the banks up. In his budget speech to the National Assembly Tuesday, Mr. Ayrault said that he was in favor of hiving a bank's lending operations away from their more "speculative" trading operations. How such a split could be done remains up in the air. It could be as harsh as forcing commercial banks to spin-off their entire investment banking unit, a la Glass-Steagall, or somewhat lighter by forcing to spin-off only those units that were deemed to be excessively speculative, similar to the Volcker rule.