德国降级有迹可循

    当然，没人认为德国会很快就会破产。即便失去AAA信用评级，面临种种经济挑战的德国仍被视为信誉卓著的国家。但前提是欧元继续存在。根据瑞银（UBS）去年的估算，如果欧元区瓦解，第一年就会给德国造成约5.14-6.42亿欧元的损失，约占其GDP的 20-25%。此后，随着德国经济萎缩以适应其坚挺的货币，德国每年还将损失约3,000-3,500亿欧元。

    穆迪发出的警告就是这样。警告会不会最终导致信用评级下调，甚至连降多级，就要看德国人的表现了。维护欧元区的完整性是德国的首要任务，但也需要分散未来救助行动的金融风险。团结起来，欧洲就可以着手解决财政问题，并同其债权人谈判达成公平的和解。但德国确实需要向邻国施压来达成一致。如果它能够利用自己手头掌握的全部政治和经济资本做到这一点，穆迪的警告也就达到目的了。

    译者：早稻米

    To be sure, no one is saying that Germany is going to go bankrupt anytime soon. Even if it loses its triple-A credit rating, it will still be seen as more than creditworthy, notwithstanding all of the current economic headwinds. That is, of course, if the euro stays together. If it breaks, UBS estimated last year that it would cost Germany around 20% to 25% of its GDP or around 514 billion to 642 billion euros in the first year off the euro. It would then cost the country around 300 to 350 billion euros every per year going forward as its economy shrinks to match its strong currency.

    The warning from Moody's (MCO) is just that – a warning. It is now up to Germany to make sure that this warning doesn't result in a downgrade, or a more dangerous multi-notch downgrade. Keeping the euro together should be Germany's number one priority but it needs to spread out the financial risk of any future bailout. United, Europe can set about to address its fiscal troubles while negotiating fair settlements with debt holders. But Germany needs to really put pressure on its neighbors to fall in line. If it successfully uses all its political and economic capital to get this done, then this warning would have done its job.