欧元危机：暑假结束，大考来临

    华尔街希望欧洲央行插手，给予西班牙和意大利债券市场无限度的支持。理论上，欧洲央行可以这么做，因为基本上它想印多少欧元就能印多少，把这些债务转到它自己的资产负债表上。但欧洲央行应该行动到什么程度收手，同时并让市场来接手呢？有种说法是，欧洲央行将对所有欧元区国家（不光是西班牙和意大利）的债券收益率设定上限，这将确保欧元区成员国能以自身可负担的利率向公众发行债券。为了让这样的机制顺利运转，欧洲央行只需购入足够多的债券来推低收益率。

    这样的计划成败取决于细节，而细节应当在9月份向市场披露。如果一切顺利，它将有望成为欧洲央行向市场引入欧元债券的迂回之策。随着欧洲央行在资产负债表上记入大量的欧元区债券，转过身来它就可以用这个债券组合来发行一只证券，卖给投资者。慢慢地，欧洲央行将放弃这项迂回之策，承担起欧元区所有的债务，然后欧元区债券将应运而生。如果这个计划行得通，它将是终结这场危机所需迈出的、实实在在的第一步。

    但是，即便这一空想的迂回债务共有化计划确实是政策选择之一，欧洲央行仍然希望它是最后的选择。德拉吉希望欧元区成员国先向救助基金寻求帮助，然后再到他在法兰克福的办公室。那么，现在这些基金的情况怎么样？欧洲金融稳定安排和国际货币基金组织（IMF）一起先是救助了几个小国——爱尔兰、葡萄牙和希腊——至今已耗资1,920亿欧元。下个月，希腊可能还需要140亿欧元，将救助总额提高至2,060亿欧元。该基金还承诺用1,000亿欧元支撑受困于房地产泡沫的西班牙银行。这样，这个基金将只剩下1,340亿欧元。这点钱根本不够用，西班牙和意大利估计要1,700亿欧元融资才能撑到今年年底，更别提意大利银行业可能还需要几十亿欧元的救助——将来的某个时间，意大利银行业可能需要救助，这显然已是板上钉钉。

    再来看看欧洲稳定机制。它的规模还没有确定，但我们知道欧元区成员国同意为所有救助基金提供的资金总额为7,000亿欧元。如果欧洲金融稳定安排达到5,000亿欧元的上限，基本上留给欧洲稳定机制的就只有2,000亿欧元了。很可能欧洲金融稳定安排余下的1,340亿欧元将在10月份欧洲稳定机制成立后转到后者名下，使得它的基金规模达到3,340亿欧元。如果所有的资金都是即刻可用，而不是按规定分批使用，那么到今年年底前该基金近半资金都将耗费在救助意大利和西班牙上。当然，前提是这两个国家无法以合理的利率向私营投资者卖出债券。如果西班牙和意大利拿走了它们所需的全部1,700亿欧元，理论上欧洲稳定机制进入2013年时将仅余1,640亿欧元。明年西班牙和意大利需要3,270亿欧元，也就是说到2013年年中欧洲稳定机制就已经用光了。.

    虽然时间不长，欧洲稳定机制仍能为欧元区赢得一些宝贵的时间来寻找更长久的欧元区危机解决方案。不幸的是，有可能他们根本不会赢得任何时间。因为9月12日德国宪法法院将对德国参与欧洲稳定机制的合法性做出判决。德国是这个机制的最大支持者，德国的高信用评级是吸引投资者的招牌。如果德国突然被迫撤出，整个欧洲稳定机制的救助机制将轰然倒塌。

    虽然救助基金从根本而言是权宜之计，并不是当前危机的解决之道，但救助基金失败的消息仍然可能引发市场的恐慌。将会发生什么事情，我们并不清楚，但这个冲击带来的巨大压力必将考验成员国留在欧元区的决心，特别是像芬兰等已经对救助表示过不满的成员国。这可能还会让荷兰大选的政党势力平衡倒向反对欧元区的一方，甚至可能导致荷兰退出欧元区。而且，它还可能促使在希腊的欧洲央行和IMF官员拒绝该国的进一步救助要求，导致希腊下个月出现债务违约，触发一系列连锁反应，最终迫使希腊退出欧元区。

    为了防止恐慌情绪蔓延，欧洲央行可能会向市场承诺如果救助基金失败，欧洲央行将立即开始买入债券。无论如何，希望那些8月份到海滩度假的欧元区领导人们回来的时候休息好了，因为很可能9月份他们不会有太多时间睡觉了。

    译者：早稻米

    Wall Street hopes the ECB will come in and support the Spanish and Italian debt markets indefinitely. Theoretically, the ECB could do it as it can essentially print as many euros as it likes, transferring that debt onto its balance sheet. But at what point do they stop and let the markets take over? There is talk that the ECB will set a cap on bond yields, not just for Spain and Italy, but for all eurozone members, which would ensure that the member states can issue debt to the public at rates they can afford. To facilitate such a mechanism, it would simply buy up enough debt to push yields down.

    This is the sort of plan that will either live or die on the details, which should be revealed to the market in September. If done right, it could be a backdoor way for the ECB to introduce eurobonds to the market. By assuming a large sampling of eurozone debt on its balance sheet, the ECB can essentially turn around and use the pool of debt to issue a security that can be sold to investors. Eventually, the ECB would drop the ruse and just assume all the continent's debt and the eurobond would be born. If the plan works, it would be the first concrete step needed to put an end to the crisis once and for all.

    But provided that this quixotic backdoor-debt-mutualization scheme is even an option, the ECB still wants it to be the last option. Draghi wants member states to go to the bailout funds for help first before coming to his office in Frankfurt. So how are the funds doing? Well, the EFSF, in conjunction with the IMF, first bailed out the little guys – Ireland, Portugal and Greece - costing the fund 192 billion euros so far. Greece may need another 14 billion euros next month, so that bumps the total up to 206 billion euros. The fund also has committed 100 billion euros to prop up Spain's property-bubble-ravaged banks. That leaves the fund with just 134 billion euros. That is simply not going to cut it as Spain and Italy need an estimated 170 billion euros of financing just to make it the to end of the year – and that precludes a possible multi-billion euro bailout of the Italian banking sector, which is surely in the cards at some point.

    Enter the ESM. Its size is in flux but we know that the total lending facility that eurozone members have agreed to for all bailout funds is 700 billion euros. If the EFSF caps out at 500 billion euros, that essentially leaves just 200 billion euros for the ESM. Most likely the 134 billion left in the EFSF would be transferred to the ESM when it is ready to go in October, giving the fund a grand total of 334 billion euros. If all the money is made available at once and not split up as mandated, then around half of the money would be eaten away to finance Italy and Spain for the rest of the year, provided they are not able to sell their debt to private investors at reasonable rates. If Spain and Italy eat the entire 170 billion euros needed, that means the bailout fund would theoretically enter 2013 with just 164 billion euros. Spain and Italy need 327 billion euros next year, which means the bailout fund could be totally exhausted by the middle of 2013.

    While short, the bailout fund buys the continent some precious time to come to a more lasting solution to the eurozone crisis. Unfortunately, there is a chance that they won't get any time at all. That's because on September 12th the German constitutional court will rule on the legality of Germany's participation in the ESM. Germany is the largest backer of the fund and its strong credit rating is being used to attract investors. If it is forced to withdraw suddenly, then the entire bailout mechanism would collapse.

    While it is true that the bailout funds are essentially a stop-gap measure and not a solution to the crisis, word of its failure could still spark panic in the markets. It is unclear what could happen, but the strain from the shock would certainly test the resolve of eurozone members to stay in the club, especially those that have already voiced their displeasure with bailouts, like Finland. It could also tip the balance in the Dutch elections to parties hostile to the eurozone, leading to its possible withdrawal from the club. And it could also push ECB and IMF officials in Greece to deny the country's cries for more money, forcing the nation to default on its debt payment due next month, setting off a chain reaction that could finally force the country out of the eurozone.

    The ECB could try to head off a panic by reassuring the markets that it would start buying bonds immediately if the bailout fund collapses. In any case, hopefully the eurozone leaders who took off time this month to go to the beach return home well rested, as there appears to be a strong possibility that they aren't going to get much sleep in September.