华尔街看好下半年

    Many thought that the United States economy had a lot going for it. Housing was bottoming, oil prices had a good chance of declining further because of increased North American production and reduced international demand, balance sheets were strong and productivity improvements had made American manufacturing extremely cost-efficient. There were plenty of cheap stocks around. Quite a few thought the economy could show growth of 3% between now and next August, although a small number believed the possibility of a recession in 2012 was real. Some thought the rising taxes associated with the "fiscal cliff" might be responsible for the slowdown. We debated whether manufacturing that had been relocated abroad would come back to a significant degree and concluded that a major renaissance was unlikely because Asia still had a considerable advantage in terms of hourly earnings per worker, although American workers were more productive. There was a lot of enthusiasm for innovation in knowledge-based and social networking industries, but there was general agreement that the impressive growth of companies in these fields was not likely to make a major impact on the U.S. unemployment problem. Those workers without technology skills would have a tough time finding permanent employment. Many of those out of work required retraining, and there seemed to be limited funds available for that. A revival of housing construction could provide some jobs for the less-skilled unemployed, but one of the real estate people pointed out that technology was moving forward there as well, putting increased demands on the qualifications of construction workers.

    At all three sessions, most of the group thought the Standard & Poor's 500 would hit 1500 before year-end. A few even thought 1600 was possible by next August. A small minority saw the index returning to 1250 (where it started the year) within twelve months.