欧洲已经错失良机了吗？

    德国央行是直接货币交易计划的唯一反对者。这一点都不奇怪，因为如果这项计划失败，德国的损失最大。最大的担忧是欧元区可能爆发极度通货膨胀。欧洲央行对此的回应是，所有的债券购买都会进行“冲销”，这种说法有点古怪，但意思就是，“通过出售自有资产负债表上的资产来抵消债券购买影响”。

    不过，欧洲央行并不打算抵押法兰克福总部来购买高风险的西班牙和意大利债券。随着购买债券的现金流入货币体系，欧洲央行计划的冲销方式是在另一端将等量现金移出货币体系，为银行提供0.01%的利率吸引它们将富余现金存放在欧洲央行。欧洲央行认为，银行将趋之若鹜，它们合计持有的富余现金目前有8,000亿美元左右。但是，不需要拥有经济学学位就能明白，这项交易对资产负债表绝非中性——至少长期不是这样。货币只有是被完全销毁或无限期封存，才会退出经济。购买新债券不能抵消什么——只会增加债务。人们或许可以通过会计方法让债务看上去不存在，但这不是事实。

    德国的保守派媒体对这项交易表示“担忧”，是可以理解的。直接货币交易计划宣布后，德国《图片报》（Bild）刊登的标题新闻是“给负债国开出的空白支票”。德国民众在这场危机中一直以来都表现得很有耐心，但如今看来已接近爆发。问题是他们看不到这些救助计划有哪项能给他们带来好处。这都要怪欧元区政客们，他们没有批准一项让德国主掌大局的财政协议。如果德国民众明确知道，未来他们将掌管真正一体化的欧洲经济，拥有在整个欧元区征税和支出收入的权力，势必会显著改变德国人的想法。

    现在行动可能为时已晚。周三，德国宪法法院将对德国参与种种救助计划是否合法做出判决。反对者称德国将太多主权交给了欧洲，德国政客们做出的这些决定是不民主的。如果判定违宪，影响难料。基本上德国（本应为救助基金提供28%的资金）将不得不撤出。另外，如果法院裁定德国放弃了太多主权，将来也不太可能看到德国参与欧元区财政协议。德国政府唯一能做的就是发起全国性的修宪投票，批准政府有权将权力交给欧盟。但现在有这么多德国人反对欧元和救助计划，很难想象怎么可能发起这样的投票。

    译者：早稻米

    Germany's central bank was the lone dissenter of the plan. That shouldn't be surprising as it has the most to lose if this plan fails. Leading the concern is the chance of hyperinflation breaking out in the eurozone. The ECB addressed this concern by noting that all bond purchases would be "sterilized," which is an odd way of saying that they would be offset through the sale of assets from its own balance sheet.

    But the ECB isn't about to mortgage its headquarters in Frankfurt to buy some risky Spanish and Italian paper. It intends to offset the cash it spends by taking an equivalent amount in cash out of the system. This is done by offering banks the amazing interest rate of 0.01% to park their excess cash at the ECB. The ECB thinks banks will jump for this deal as they collectively have around $800 billion in excess cash reserves. But you don't need a degree in economics to realize that this is not a balance sheet-neutral transaction – at least not in the long term. Money needs to be destroyed or shelved indefinitely for it to leave the economy. Acquiring new debt doesn't offset anything – it just adds more debt. One can mess around with the accounting to make it appear that it doesn't exist, but it isn't reality.

    Germany's conservative press was understandably "concerned," about the deal. "Blank check for the indebted states," was the headline splashed across the Bild newspaper following the announcement. Germany's population has been very patient throughout the crisis, but they appear close to exploding. The problem is that they aren't seeing how the any of the various bailouts will benefit them. Eurozone politicians are to blame for that as they have failed to agree to a fiscal pact that would see Germany at the top of the heap. If Germany's population knew for sure that they will be at helm of a truly unified European economy, with the power to tax and spend revenue across the zone, it could change German sentiment dramatically.

    But it may be too late to act. On Wednesday, Germany's constitutional court will rule on whether or not it is legal for Germany to participate in the various bailout schemes. Those that oppose the bailouts say that Germany has given up too much of its sovereignty to Europe and the decisions made by their politicians are undemocratic. The fallout from such a ruling is hard to fathom. In essence, Germany, which was supposed to back 28% of the bailout fund, would have to withdraw. Furthermore, if the court rules that Germany has given up too much sovereignty, it would be impossible to see how Germany could participate in a eurozone fiscal pact. The government's only recourse would be to call a national vote to alter the constitution, giving the government the power to essentially give up its power to the EU. With so many Germans now opposed to the euro and the bailout, it is difficult to see how that could ever happen.